TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6872…876f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
236
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 52 out of 100; worst UFC at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT9613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 96 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$2,136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,136.14
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,866Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,865.59
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$4,527Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,526.75
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$570Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$570.19
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$535Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$534.56
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$429Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$428.95
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$399.84
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+283.3%+$207.69
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$860Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+137.5%+$1,182.21
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$3,406Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+139.2%+$4,741.24
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$2,852Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,851.83
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$5,790Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,790.25
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$717Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$717.08
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$3,812Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,811.99
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$4,209Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,209.26
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$245.3
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$2,618Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,617.7
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$2,950Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,949.81
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$6,533Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,533.47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.5
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$2,041Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,041.21
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$454Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$453.98
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,895Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,895.22
Showing 25 of 96 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3718.9%7 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,053Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,053.1
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$365.89
Spain leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in First Halfbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.98
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in Second Halfbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$211.61
Spain vs. Argentina: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.07
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$336Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$335.74
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
France vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.39
Michael Olise: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.6
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in Second Halfbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$336Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$336.33
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Halfbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.29
France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$428Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+162.3%+$693.87
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$139.7
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$438Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$438.26
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$270.64
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$327Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$326.86
Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score in Second Halfbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.3
Norway vs. England: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.64
Norway vs. England: Norway 2nd Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$235.08
Norway vs. England: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Norway vs. England: England 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+252.2%+$358.05
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$224.5
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-73.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$746Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$745.95
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$3,549Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,549.04
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$577.15
Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.45
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,422Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$1,422.12
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$589Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$589.41
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,255Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,254.75
Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$158.53
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$2,172Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$2,172.25
Flying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$249.55
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$971Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$971.31
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$828Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$827.6
Espresso FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$59.84
Over $500K committed to the Foresee public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+78.6%+$42.75
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$3,331Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$3,331.11
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$7,085Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$7,084.97
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$2,613Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$2,613.2
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$361Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$361.29
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$237.51
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$22,132Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$22,131.97
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$2,991Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$2,990.59
Lighter Airdrop on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$1,049.86
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$3,412Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+263.5%+$8,990.88
No airdrop in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$157.5
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT205%1 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-88.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,594Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,594.14
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$2,224Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,224.42
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$431.78
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.46
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.67
Will Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.12
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.37
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.45
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,071Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+123.3%+$1,321.15
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$290.18
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.85
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.66
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,510Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,510.45
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$177.42
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.09
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,233Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,233.5
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.63
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.95
All 20 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-71.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$935Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$934.79
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$448Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+245.6%+$1,099.9
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$170.05
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.93
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$2,611Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,610.59
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$211.31
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$112
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$524Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$523.97
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,498Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,498.13
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$2,175Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,174.92
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$177.84
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.88
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.33
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.13
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$408Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$408.06
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$737Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$736.89
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$266.99
Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$217.28
All 8 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST80%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.72
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$153.64
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$103.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,798Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,797.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$235.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.