Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad4dfc9cad4f0dd42a4f200a79372071498eabec911a34d2248b633ef22f81e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 9c | 4,148$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.19 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d54…e1f8backed Yes | 24c | 4,128$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +1,064.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc221…92a8backed Yes | 9c | 3,500$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes | 5c | 3,212$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.2 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…045abacked No | 75c | 2,568$1,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956f…93f3backed Yes | 10c | 1,817$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,573$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,557$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,286$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e3…3a39backed Yes | 10c | 1,242$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,162$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 5c | 989.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 17cpaid | -96.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 7c | 678.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 517.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 5c | 516.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 3c | 462.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 450$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 446.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 6c | 399.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 8c | 374.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 4c | 286.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 5c | 254.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 9c | 217.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…d99ebacked Yes | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 106 | 7.5%8 W · 98 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b67…584fbacked Yes | 11c | 171.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2180…5345backed Yes | 8c | 167.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 8c | 159.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd70f…a153backed Yes | 16c | 125.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cb…203ebacked Yes | 9c | 120.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…2ef1backed Yes | 10c | 114.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…1191backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7085…5b58backed Yes | 20c | 70.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in February?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in February?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.