Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x766b8b99edec0e60a511b8b95369c17c9d397146d6a2abe3e1c26c77f8a3daf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36f8…8f35backed Yes | 1c | 16,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 13,209$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…e990backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde81…d29cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,340$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbf…5d35backed Yes | 4c | 805.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked No | 72c | 601.49$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 267.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264b…cf7fbacked Yes | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…3255backed Yes | 33c | 156.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc59…df13backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…0343backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 83.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 83.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…230abacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 79c | 61.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7936…1e6cbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…9b3bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…d198backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe772…9084backed No | 76c | 19.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in February?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.