Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x795b8072dbadc2b4a87b019cfce29d090dfe3126f1955bcf89988a5e35e88e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73c0…3733backed Yes | 67c | 3,209$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…ce36backed No | 25c | 3,200$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 33c | 2,000$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked No | 30c | 1,563$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.75 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 24c | 860.68$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.34 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 17cpaid | -96.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…ab80backed Yes | 46c | 800$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x939c…ad45backed Yes | 78c | 731.53$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.53 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…a9efbacked No | 20c | 674.04$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 32c | 630$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 25c | 602.82$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…3130backed Yes | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes | 54c | 528.38$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.03 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9343…8fd4backed No | 32c | 503.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.13 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 23c | 440$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…a55cbacked No | 16c | 410$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6b…a7b4backed Yes | 57c | 370.18$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.18 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedcd…a1c7backed Yes | 71c | 335$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 278.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed No | 9c | 237.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…15a6backed Yes | 72c | 203.94$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 72c | 199.99$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe531…73bbbacked Yes | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…571cbacked No | 18c | 135.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…9da8backed No | 10c | 132.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 79c | 127.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d30bbacked No | 17c | 117.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…43dabacked No | 27c | 111.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked Yes | 65c | 105.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed Yes | 74c | 105.01$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5218…4b51backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a5…db24backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…9cfabacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 58c | 94.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb39…18ecbacked No | 30c | 89.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe257…1c19backed No | 30c | 83.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9f…eaa3backed No | 26c | 70.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…059bbacked No | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5225…5732backed Yes | 80c | 62.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…d077backed No | 32c | 62.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4450…086cbacked No | 42c | 59.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 55.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed No | 37c | 53.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb776…0297backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8da…e784backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…abe7backed No | 37c | 44.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…2361backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddec…4b75backed Yes | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Yes | 75c | 26.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked Yes | 61c | 23.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in February?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.