Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ad6c100759a6280cdfcbe0d1331bf1e489cf6d1ce5f9ae5d6ee7315ec54c50c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 27,383$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.57 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 7c | 2,738$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.84 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 17cpaid | -96.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20e1…4fa1backed Yes | 1c | 2,624$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,173$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,981$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…390abacked Yes | 14c | 1,438$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,409$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…230abacked Yes | 14c | 775.21$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.53 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbf…5d35backed Yes | 14c | 646.22$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e57…55b7backed Yes | 10c | 476.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 9cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 281.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 10c | 280.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264b…cf7fbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…5628backed Yes | 15c | 161.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked Yes | 20c | 117.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in February?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.