Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46e8960d8066b0b1d46e54ca42b73383cb684b38a53862cdfa4f50be0c925c78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 1c | 16,837$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.43 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 11c | 6,658$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes | 34c | 5,654$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,906.44 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x867c…4ffbbacked Yes | 0c | 4,705$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,574$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.03 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde81…d29cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,148$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed No | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,768$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 2,483$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.91 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 17cpaid | -96.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94cc…cd4ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,213$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b9…0371backed Yes | 17c | 1,729$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,654$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 11c | 1,424$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…2bfdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,146$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbf…5d35backed Yes | 1c | 1,079$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,060$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 3c | 937.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 2c | 901.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 4c | 900$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…b7f8backed Yes | 2c | 884$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…390abacked Yes | 48c | 804.42$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…8934backed Yes | 13c | 687.65$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…d255backed Yes | 7c | 673.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 606.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…de36backed Yes | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 7c | 466.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…b728backed Yes | 4c | 465.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…541bbacked No | 74c | 441.1$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 47c | 426.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 7c | 418.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 63c | 410.99$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.69 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…9da8backed Yes | 15c | 384.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f71…912dbacked Yes | 3c | 330.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 330.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Yes | 15c | 326.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 76c | 299.6$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 15c | 217.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 13c | 193.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…33f4backed Yes | 14c | 181.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…7f7bbacked Yes | 49c | 179.88$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 179.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee5…27d8backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9039…d819backed No | 64c | 155.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce12…8a1ebacked Yes | 8c | 126.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410d…1193backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 41c | 111$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +205.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe772…9084backed No | 73c | 103.55$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba22…dc45backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7936…1e6cbacked No | 74c | 85.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9832…6e4dbacked No | 40c | 65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…059bbacked Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed No | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 46c | 43.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…f691backed Yes | 45c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…d54ebacked No | 62c | 32.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab1…917abacked Yes | 47c | 32.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c6…2a68backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed No | 60c | 21.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ef…d798backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…250bbacked Yes | 66c | 19.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in February?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in February?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.