TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,378

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,900 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c12,512$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.994754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes5c2,067$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.72402.5%1 W · 39 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick17cpaid-96.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xde81…d29cbacked Yes1c1,975$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfbf…5d35backed Yes4c1,897$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.861010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes3c1,836$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.474163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes28c1,543$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.280%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadd4…2bfdbacked Yes1c1,467$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,051$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.316785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f71…912dbacked Yes9c815.07$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.99695.8%4 W · 65 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes2c801.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+129.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c726.9$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.711,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes4c550.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.452683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcda6…3f07backed Yes19c530$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.71963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501040%4 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+41.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c499.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.752581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0baf…390abacked Yes42c479.59$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+157.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes7c400$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.11285.5%7 W · 121 L+0.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf9…82cabacked Yes31c350$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes8c336.71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.731375.8%8 W · 129 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x603a…fa61backed No58c301.72$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935869%40 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d0…60a1backed Yes12c299.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x600e…7ef9backed Yes5c296.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f56…8586backed Yes9c277.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf5f5…700cbacked Yes37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes19c213.41$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.886642.4%28 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e57…55b7backed Yes8c208.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.751127.3%3 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick9cpaid+136.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked No55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f72…230abacked Yes39c192.86$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick20cpaid-82.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2470…9da8backed No59c190$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No75c151.27$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.07425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-66.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac80…97b1backed No69c150$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7936…1e6cbacked No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.15785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick69cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7371…cadebacked No45c99.18$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.55666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe652…d114backed No78c96.43$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.773050%15 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes12c94.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.025514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.2wins0.00per pick15cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e75…0f8dbacked No73c82.73$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes55c81$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.553542.9%15 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick24cpaid+109.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdf27…bc7cbacked No75c80.16$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No78c77.79$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7613053.8%70 W · 60 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe772…9084backed No63c68.33$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.622470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9039…d819backed No76c52.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes25c49.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.353842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…640bbacked No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+27.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked No72c29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.121384.6%11 W · 2 L+3.9wins+0.30per pick55cpaid+89.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2f44…2fdabacked Yes44c25.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x954e…927fbacked No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.