Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9720c38316676a0d188f1342274e86946d266cdbff074bddbb1f3ab02a17fc91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 12,512$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 5c | 2,067$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 17cpaid | -96.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde81…d29cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,975$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbf…5d35backed Yes | 4c | 1,897$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 1,836$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,543$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…2bfdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,467$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,051$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f71…912dbacked Yes | 9c | 815.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 2c | 801.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +129.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 726.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 4c | 550.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed Yes | 19c | 530$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…390abacked Yes | 42c | 479.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…8526backed Yes | 7c | 400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 128 | 5.5%7 W · 121 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf9…82cabacked Yes | 31c | 350$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes | 8c | 336.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 137 | 5.8%8 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x603a…fa61backed No | 58c | 301.72$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Yes | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x600e…7ef9backed Yes | 5c | 296.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…8586backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f5…700cbacked Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes | 19c | 213.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e57…55b7backed Yes | 8c | 208.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 9cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…230abacked Yes | 39c | 192.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…9da8backed No | 59c | 190$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 75c | 151.27$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7936…1e6cbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked No | 45c | 99.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe652…d114backed No | 78c | 96.43$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 12c | 94.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e75…0f8dbacked No | 73c | 82.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 55c | 81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…bc7cbacked No | 75c | 80.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 78c | 77.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe772…9084backed No | 63c | 68.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9039…d819backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 25c | 49.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…640bbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f44…2fdabacked Yes | 44c | 25.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in February?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February?No won
- Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.