TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6f43…a080

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
426
Categories scored
34
Categories below 50
21

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 58 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST11855.1%65 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 118 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+81.8%+$45
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$33.33
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+194.1%+$66
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on February 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+25%+$10
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+112.8%+$42.4
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on February 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+177.8%+$19.2
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$32
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+25%+$4
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 65°F or below on February 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+32.8%+$8.65
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on February 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+26.6%+$6.3
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on February 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+51.5%+$6.57
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on February 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+25%+$6
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on February 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+33.3%+$5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 36°F or higher on February 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+393.8%+$63.8
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on February 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+51.5%+$6.8
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on February 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$17.5
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 54-55°F on February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$11.12
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+25%+$4
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$21.6
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$17.5
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$16.71
Showing 25 of 118 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST4427.3%12 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$24.39
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+1,258.3%+$340.83
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$53.13
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$77.28
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$92.5
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+29.9%+$29.87
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+33.4%+$33.44
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+25%+$25
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$21.38
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$285Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$285
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,904Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+26.7%+$508.2
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$386Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$385.83
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+32.8%+$196.66
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$24.94
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,271Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+34.9%+$793.05
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT3043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$13.83
Bulls vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Wizards vs. Pistons: O/U 225.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Spread: Celtics (-12.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+88.7%+$35.47
Spread: Heat (-6.5)backed Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Suns vs. Heat: O/U 230.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+96.1%+$57.65
Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$160
Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+100%+$120
Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 220.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$140
Nets vs. Mavericksbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$160
Celtics vs. Pacersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$140
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)backed Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+94.8%+$56.83
Rockets vs. Kings: O/U 222.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+96.1%+$288.24
Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)backed Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Spread: Rockets (-6.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$140
Suns vs. Grizzliesbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+42.9%+$25.71
Spread: Magic (-1.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+163.2%+$32.63
Spread: Magic (-2.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Spread: Raptors (-2.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$139.64
Clippers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+91.7%+$73.33
Spread: Pistons (-10.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+96.1%+$38.43
Nuggets vs. Celticsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+354.5%+$70.91
Bulls vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+25.9%+$8.78
Spurs vs. Grizzliesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.23
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,315Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+165.9%+$2,181.55
Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,671Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+145.1%+$2,425.44
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$744Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+123.5%+$919.13
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$72
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$400
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$69
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,676Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,676.42
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+33.3%+$7.5
Will the US seize an Iran-linked tanker by Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$18.68
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+28.2%+$28.21
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$295.73
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+84.6%+$16.91
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+43.8%+$43.77
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$39.25
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+69.5%+$13.9
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+66.7%+$13.33
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+66.7%+$13.33
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT2171.4%15 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+31.3%+$124.99
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+52.9%+$52.87
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+85.2%+$10.82
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+44.5%+$44.51
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$250.71
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+35.1%+$10.4
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$53.89
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+31.5%+$36.27
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Threads be the #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+37.9%+$15.17
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+49.1%+$29.45
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$594Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+25.7%+$152.82
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+37.1%+$111.17
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$43
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+42.6%+$58.93
Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+42.4%+$8.48
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$176
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+120%+$60
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+31.8%+$95.43
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+25.4%+$26.54
All 21 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST2147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panthers vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+58.7%+$58.73
Predators vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+63.9%+$127.87
Penguins vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Stars vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Oilers vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$11.46
Devils vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$101
Hurricanes vs. Red Wingsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Panthers vs. Sabresbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+92.5%+$166.46
Kraken vs. Rangersbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+127.3%+$31.82
Blue Jackets vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Devils vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+81.8%+$73.72
Islanders vs. Predatorsbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$213.71
Sharks vs. Kingsbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+195.1%+$214.57
Senators vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+83.6%+$167.25
Flames vs. Canadiensbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$169.12
Stars vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$140
Predators vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+78.6%+$66.11
Avalanche vs. Lightningbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Red Wings vs. Senatorsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+143.9%+$23.5
Utah vs. Rangersbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+96.1%+$30.51
Panthers vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 21 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1877.8%14 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick66cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$420
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.4
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+34.6%+$13.4
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$640Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+30%+$191.84
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+56%+$111.91
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$483Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+36.8%+$177.81
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+48%+$48.03
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+66.7%+$13.33
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+75.4%+$15.09
Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+35.3%+$35.27
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+61.3%+$61.29
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+37.4%+$14.95
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+80.6%+$20.14
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$6,045Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$6,044.75
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+32%+$95.97
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+51.8%+$41.46
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+46.8%+$46.84
All 18 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1741.2%7 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick60cpaid-37.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hyperliquid reach $40 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+117.8%+$23.57
Will Solana dip to $90 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 2-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 2-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 2-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$214.09
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$7.78
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$401Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+63.9%+$256.11
Will Solana reach $150 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$35.14
Will BNB reach $1000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+54%+$37.82
Will Solana reach $160 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$17.09
Will Hyperliquid hit $38 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,517Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+28.1%+$425.7
Will Solana dip to $110 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,324Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$1,323.93
Will Solana dip to $120 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$70
All 17 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Burnley FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+31.6%+$6.32
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50.4
AFC Bournemouth vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+78.6%+$44
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+32.3%+$11.32
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+44.9%+$11.68
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+176.1%+$323.73
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$163.06
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$24.39
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+72.4%+$108.62
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$465Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+66.7%+$309.86
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+88.7%+$198.04
AFC Bournemouth vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$190
Will West Ham United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+37.4%+$17.97
West Ham United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+100%+$60
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-01-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+178.5%+$123.05
All 16 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST1471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+41.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Quinnipiac Bobcats: O/U 154.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Central Connecticut State Blue Devils vs. Mercyhurst Lakers: O/U 132.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+89.5%+$21.09
Iona Gaels vs. Saint Peter's Peacocks: O/U 142.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+100%+$40
Merrimack College Warriors vs. Marist Red Foxes: O/U 133.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+104.1%+$54.68
Cornell Big Red vs. Brown Bears: O/U 163.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+100%+$80
Jackson State Tigers vs. Alabama A&M Bulldogs: O/U 140.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Spread: Siena Saints (-2.5)backed Siena Saints · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+92.3%+$248.31
Spread: Northern Kentucky Norse (-3.5)backed Green Bay Phoenix · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+104.1%+$229.33
Spread: Manhattan Jaspers (-5.5)backed Manhattan Jaspers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+92.3%+$369.23
Spread: Marist Red Foxes (-11.5)backed Marist Red Foxes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+108.3%+$23.82
Northern Kentucky Norse vs. Green Bay Phoenix: O/U 144.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Spread: Detroit Titans (-6.5)backed Detroit Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+96.1%+$142.4
Canisius Golden Griffins vs. Iona Gaels: O/U 142.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+92.3%+$184.62
Spread: Richmond Spiders (-7.5)backed Richmond Spiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$253.7
All 14 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+35.5%+$35.5
Will Seattle beat New England in Super Bowl LX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+44.9%+$8.99
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)backed Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+108.3%+$65
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+47.1%+$47.06
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)backed Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+96.1%+$132.78
Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 38.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+92.3%+$166.15
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$220
Spread: Texans (-3.5)backed Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Spread: Eagles (-4.5)backed Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$160
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+222.6%+$222.58
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$51.48
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+108.3%+$48.75
All 13 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-40.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+30.4%+$30.36
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+41.8%+$41.77
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+26.2%+$26.15
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+71.2%+$142.48
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$51
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?backed ETH · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Silver (SI) Up or Down on January 20?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,700 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+43.4%+$43.43
All 12 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST1172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+37%+$5.4
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Pisa SC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+31.6%+$4.8
Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+56.3%+$22.5
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+28.2%+$8.46
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$234.99
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+212.5%+$42.5
Will Torino FC win on 2026-01-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+72.4%+$72.41
SS Lazio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+42.9%+$8.57
US Lecce vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+72.4%+$108.62
All 11 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-39.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Indiana (-7.5)backed Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$27
Spread: Miami (-3.5)backed Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+101.3%+$177.24
Miami vs. Ole Missbacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+61.3%+$12.26
All 3 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+153.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+58.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+217.5%+$217.5
Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$2,275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,274.71
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-01-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+87.4%+$61.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+28.3%+$37.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-01-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$158.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Konyaspor: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$17.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.