AI · resolved market
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb93355873b4fb2a299e454785b31b4d794ccd105c02a261c613a483617b80054
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 25c | 3,190$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,390.14 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 17c | 2,911$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,405.87 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be9…a1a7backed Yes | 33c | 2,375$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 10c | 1,954$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.4 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…a677backed Yes | 45c | 1,419$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…b638backed Yes | 67c | 1,050$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…281abacked Yes | 12c | 953.86$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.35 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 22c | 923.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.89 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6e…9870backed Yes | 61c | 869.87$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e80…515dbacked Yes | 78c | 791.41$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 20c | 586.34$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.07 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 72c | 550.57$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.4 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 532.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.5 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f5…3464backed Yes | 45c | 444.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…b1f0backed Yes | 17c | 392.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +498.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 59c | 298.85$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…5ca7backed Yes | 22c | 293.51$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 59c | 271.39$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.19 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…e1e2backed Yes | 25c | 250$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 73c | 222.41$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.19 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 68c | 199.23$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.03 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e6…2d79backed Yes | 61c | 156.35$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…4d07backed Yes | 20c | 153.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +155.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 149.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.19 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…242cbacked Yes | 49c | 139.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 110.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.47 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66cf…9eaabacked Yes | 13c | 107.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +275%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3c…4169backed Yes | 17c | 102.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 68c | 101.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…0832backed Yes | 51c | 100.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +8.2wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +140%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8169…915bbacked Yes | 26c | 84.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +285%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…93a3backed Yes | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 59c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ef…2e2cbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d3…7ed4backed Yes | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…070cbacked No | 76c | 16.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95a0…e80bbacked No | 75c | 13.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?this page
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.