TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc5e6…2d79

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: AI, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category AI at 53 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT2450%12 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.5
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$201.7
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+33.5%+$65.25
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+150%+$30
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$110.67
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+62.5%+$80.79
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.9
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+67.8%+$139.16
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.5
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.5
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.55
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+125.8%+$47.51
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.28
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+162.5%+$169.66
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+46.1%+$13.83
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12.8
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+30.2%+$4.64
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+55%+$17.75
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+89.5%+$33.07
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$28.29
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$12.6
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+96.1%+$14.7
All 24 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT1553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 11-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.8
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+49.5%+$52.95
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25.9%+$82.4
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$40.2
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 February 9-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+81.8%+$17.37
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 2-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$16.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 2-8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+66.7%+$20
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.99
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$47
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 19-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+38.9%+$16.8
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+28.6%+$89
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 12-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+56.3%+$10.8
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+88.7%+$141
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 22-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$18.8
All 15 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-62.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+48.4%+$7.07
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+39.9%+$5.7
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$28.9
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$220.72
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+157.7%+$61.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blues vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+33.3%+$5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3)backed PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-01-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$16
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.