TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,197,411
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,578,395

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,197,411 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 920 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9648…6825backed No16c54,601$8,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,601.252729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-55.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No23c51,136$11,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,852.562330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No17c49,047$8,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,126.252429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf933…4069backed No1c30,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4712…29ddbacked Yes80c27,805$22,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,656.383100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c6c…1f86backed No18c16,598$3,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,021.4460%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09c0…6f73backed Yes70c15,145$10,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,600.433100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6f6…3075backed Yes80c13,000$10,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,659.99875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+33%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes79c11,117$8,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,283.6414421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes79c9,975$7,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,083.912934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes79c8,980$7,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,847.382458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb522…3ebbbacked Yes64c7,556$4,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,698.995100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37d1…6caabacked Yes79c7,113$5,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes79c7,000$5,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe617…f251backed Yes73c6,805$4,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,847.73475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaa0…a9dfbacked No1c6,154$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked Yes72c6,151$4,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,744.321421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick46cpaid-70.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed No15c5,734$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.49474.3%2 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-93.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked No16c5,322$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.577020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca4…f2d4backed Yes77c5,246$4,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.08450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No15c5,063$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.623718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No7c4,687$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.041388%11 W · 127 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No2c4,351$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.64634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5441…7c4ebacked Yes78c4,339$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.761163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c4,266$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.613042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No18c4,009$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.328923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes77c3,946$3,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.73540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes77c3,828$2,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.0511723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No18c3,451$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.883231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-44.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes79c3,376$2,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.526716.4%11 W · 56 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No2c3,157$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.892792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No31c3,129$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.3532228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed No18c3,086$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.913125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe613…540ebacked No17c3,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.991612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-61.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93e3…90d9backed Yes66c2,864$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae23…142ebacked No27c2,852$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.95822.4%13 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb52f…3c2dbacked Yes68c2,631$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.693043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40e1…ae4bbacked No2c2,604$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes79c2,556$2,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.7547938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked No17c2,500$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.993946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9305…e605backed Yes75c2,456$1,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed Yes76c2,153$1,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.696338.1%24 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd2f…6a9dbacked No8c2,133$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No1c2,133$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.76590%0 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fef…ee82backed Yes74c2,095$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.94933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-53%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed No7c2,080$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.035738.6%22 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No16c2,069$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.158942.7%38 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked No20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006536.9%24 W · 41 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+55.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe073…abb2backed No2c2,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x245e…183cbacked Yes45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06b6…eba6backed Yes74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5201457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No19c2,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.979041.1%37 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes76c1,987$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.73647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0961…5c68backed Yes76c1,974$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de5…d7a5backed No18c1,946$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.2630%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No2c1,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a5b…a840backed Yes78c1,708$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b8c…a00bbacked Yes77c1,692$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No23c1,681$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.1720418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa404…8116backed Yes64c1,666$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42ab…3e26backed No3c1,664$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked No53c1,663$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.65137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-82.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1653…0348backed Yes63c1,595$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d0…81aabacked Yes80c1,590$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No16c1,576$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.341546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa85f…d9ecbacked Yes78c1,533$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c31…1b6bbacked Yes71c1,527$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-64.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90cf…6cc2backed Yes80c1,500$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.04475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x454e…36cbbacked No17c1,479$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.35250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cf9…cffdbacked Yes77c1,457$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…8e0ebacked Yes69c1,446$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.91650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No20c1,442$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.346448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x108a…dc8dbacked No24c1,437$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.0780%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No24c1,413$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.023647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a37…5a89backed Yes79c1,400$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a9…98b0backed Yes80c1,377$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45fe…4c1abacked No2c1,354$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.22825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked No20c1,353$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.089940.4%40 W · 59 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes78c1,334$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.2212839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked No29c1,327$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.0121035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6718…e623backed Yes59c1,285$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.062263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+41.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fab…6206backed Yes78c1,282$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.053100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+46.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec95…b89cbacked Yes77c1,281$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.14683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb9c…32e2backed Yes79c1,258$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.361553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e4d…820bbacked Yes80c1,254$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd9…feb7backed Yes80c1,240$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.01475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+125.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d4…1243backed Yes79c1,240$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes79c1,215$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.854259.5%25 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6607…5bd9backed Yes79c1,212$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.691250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1aa…9cdcbacked No8c1,188$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f4…2e5ebacked Yes53c1,128$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.22580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+19.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x522f…ebc3backed Yes80c1,111$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9064…c1acbacked Yes68c1,109$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes47c1,088$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.484729.8%14 W · 33 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0256…2b78backed Yes79c1,078$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d3…02e4backed No24c1,042$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Yes75c1,000$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.15887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick61cpaid+44.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes73c1,000$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2685240.4%21 W · 31 L+6.1wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4310…37e1backed Yes77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2301100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x467c…b348backed Yes79c999.98$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.