AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf606d64b93ebae1c5c2aabc2ad1f533135ce6c6c264482be1566f8b0d8f8e570
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $947,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $598,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $947,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 170,630$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.69 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 59,999$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c9…2fb4backed Yes | 1c | 55,390$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 45,299$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 40,035$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.81 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…43a6backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9084…d70fbacked Yes | 1c | 26,025$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 2c | 23,832$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.98 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 23,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.37 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 0c | 20,279$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 2c | 19,736$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.21 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 1c | 19,023$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a8…ee49backed Yes | 1c | 16,421$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2552…73d2backed Yes | 2c | 15,172$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.42 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a6…8651backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 1c | 14,820$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.89 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…056cbacked Yes | 1c | 12,724$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…3c54backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18f7…8d83backed Yes | 1c | 10,691$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 8,334$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe428…f96abacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bd…5da7backed Yes | 1c | 6,183$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…9127backed Yes | 1c | 6,005$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…b871backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 4,891$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 0c | 4,340$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 1c | 3,650$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf44a…4cbdbacked Yes | 0c | 2,900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 3c | 2,584$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…9274backed Yes | 1c | 2,555$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…3432backed Yes | 5c | 2,539$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70be…044dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 1c | 2,220$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbce…6d74backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,835$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 2c | 1,768$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,740$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,606$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes | 2c | 1,574$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…fe53backed Yes | 1c | 1,294$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,219$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3d…c37ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,051$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…e56cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,035$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 254.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 7c | 242.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.