TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb6f6…3075

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
53
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: AI, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category AI at 56 out of 100; worst World Politics at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3060%18 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$317.5
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$3,750Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$1,250
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$420
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$290
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$5,067Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$2,847.28
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,878Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+51.9%+$2,014.28
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,858Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,857.97
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$800
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,760Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$1,239.99
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$750Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$250
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$519Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+25%+$129.8
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$730Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+37%+$270
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$420
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,550Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,550
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,105.27
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$980Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$980
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,600Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$1,399.99
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$650
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,460Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$540
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$619.99
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,085Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+38.3%+$415.47
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,307Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+53%+$692.65
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$4,046Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$1,163.8
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.49
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$7,838Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$2,161.05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$7,595Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+36.2%+$2,752.39
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$232.86
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$398.93
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,301Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+53.7%+$699.03
Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.89
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$217.95
Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+51.1%+$87.01
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$770Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$230
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+33%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$180
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$115
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.