AI · resolved market
ChatGPT Outage by April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43e66ff24042d22714a0adb10704da324dfc4be1ef2062f7e9c46bbbb544ab8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $237,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $217,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9a7…1b9bbacked No | 0c | 92,008$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed No | 0c | 16,447$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…481dbacked No | 1c | 8,392$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…c345backed Yes | 59c | 3,894$2,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…d484backed No | 1c | 3,515$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 42c | 3,334$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.28 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3033…fc1abacked No | 3c | 2,781$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 16c | 2,620$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,201.23 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f0…fa73backed No | 1c | 2,542$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 20c | 2,401$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.06 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.47per pick | 39cpaid | +165%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 65c | 2,107$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed No | 5c | 2,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 6c | 1,500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031e…0065backed No | 1c | 1,224$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 1,120$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.84 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 9c | 1,102$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 26c | 1,026$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.74 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c5…bd53backed No | 6c | 1,018$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 80c | 974.26$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.22 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 11c | 917$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…df7fbacked Yes | 22c | 879.97$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked No | 2c | 834.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x472d…502dbacked No | 2c | 791.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 11c | 750$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15a…a83fbacked No | 72c | 618.46$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed Yes | 48c | 594.05$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed No | 55c | 543.03$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.56 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8f…bb81backed No | 5c | 522.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…803ebacked No | 4c | 515.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf1…98cbbacked No | 76c | 497.64$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 62c | 432.36$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.41 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 61c | 349.82$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131e…b41bbacked No | 72c | 333.57$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 30c | 309.62$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 47c | 305.28$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.63 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…3075backed Yes | 32c | 299.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.97 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…1f6abacked Yes | 33c | 289.1$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…b283backed Yes | 28c | 287.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 19c | 271.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 68c | 259.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.22 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 12c | 255$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf31b…241bbacked No | 65c | 222$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 203.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.64 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…1d38backed No | 5c | 197.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3722…1f0abacked No | 76c | 196.12$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -67%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf47e…5031backed No | 73c | 195.68$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1289…6f82backed Yes | 38c | 195.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…c537backed No | 72c | 191.32$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.32per pick | 63cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 73c | 188.21$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked No | 20c | 187.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +103%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked No | 56c | 171.11$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9967…1e5dbacked No | 69c | 156.53$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 32c | 151.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed No | 68c | 142.52$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 36c | 141$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…8983backed No | 74c | 131.53$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…ef8dbacked Yes | 26c | 130$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…ab0abacked No | 78c | 125.95$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 26c | 124.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 17c | 120.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.89 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef8e…7465backed Yes | 26c | 114.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db5…fa3ebacked Yes | 17c | 108.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +192.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…ad21backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…01ddbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.29 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…2155backed Yes | 27c | 86.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 31c | 80.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa9…a191backed Yes | 26c | 71.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4564…e1b4backed No | 68c | 71.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…e527backed Yes | 27c | 67.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 47c | 65.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86f9…111ebacked Yes | 46c | 65.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 54c | 62.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 31c | 62.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 25c | 61.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdd…6445backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 54.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3582…746fbacked No | 54c | 53.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 58c | 53.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3676…330cbacked No | 39c | 53.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7918…f39fbacked No | 75c | 52.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31f7…1989backed No | 62c | 50.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3353backed No | 55c | 47.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 52c | 46.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd254…9858backed No | 66c | 44.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…3ab8backed Yes | 34c | 42.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c62…0451backed No | 67c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed8…8f0cbacked Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…80cbbacked Yes | 30c | 33.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…ad18backed No | 66c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ChatGPT Outage by April 10?this page
- ChatGPT Outage by April 17?Yes won
- ChatGPT Outage by April 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.