TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb0b5…e373

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
303
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Weather at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weatherlast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT15128.5%43 W · 108 L-12.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 151 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.45
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$56
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.13
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$13.42
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on August 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$55
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.91
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on August 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$62
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.36
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.32
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on August 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.9
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.99
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on August 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Showing 25 of 151 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT12359.3%73 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 123 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$14.78
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$10
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$26.6
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.41
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$13.92
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$14.73
Trail Blazers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.23
Heat vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$15.56
Thunder vs. Clippersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$15.56
Spread: Thunder (-13.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$24.14
Hornets vs. Celticsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.74
76ers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$13.92
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.71
Cavaliers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$39.8
Mavericks vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$35.87
76ers vs. Heatbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.32
Suns vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.8
Celtics vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$13.16
Warriors vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$22.46
Knicks vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$15.79
Showing 25 of 123 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.11
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+185.1%+$161.97
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+82.3%+$138.96
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+203%+$200
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 27?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$106
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$141
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 20?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$66
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$46
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$86
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$4.87
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.95
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 1?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$116
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politicslast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+39.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+42.9%+$7.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menerybacked Manziel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$388.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ChatGPT Outage by April 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.