Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd93170271df1549c5181871a66d95d20475cf2316537faa108db3a9196a30af0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 5c | 9,070$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.49 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 8c | 1,349$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.14 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 1c | 1,201$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 4c | 966.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 2c | 958.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 33c | 869.6$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.18 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 9c | 722.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 683.29$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.16 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 370$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 4c | 365.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 31c | 300$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…eaf5backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 35c | 288.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 31c | 278.25$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 27c | 269.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 224.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…b3aebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 32c | 199.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 190$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 179$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 158$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 10c | 141.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 136.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 29c | 136.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 131.55$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 128$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 17c | 114.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 110$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 33c | 109.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b66…f51ebacked Yes | 14c | 104.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 65c | 103.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 101.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 30c | 97.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…ce08backed Yes | 22c | 87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 33c | 82.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 30c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 62.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…7481backed Yes | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x242d…6119backed No | 66c | 59.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53b9…70dcbacked Yes | 34c | 59.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 57.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 33c | 50.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 50.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed No | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 35c | 43.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 35c | 42.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 30c | 40.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Yes | 35c | 29.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 66c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed No | 67c | 15.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.