Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf70b91b5dbc93fb6c967bfda72cc643a49b12acc2d3498bb8304990fc6af0dfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 39c | 3,188$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.73 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 613.29$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.89 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 58c | 500$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc466…3f77backed Yes | 43c | 460.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 63c | 451.9$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.2 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 431.36$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 22c | 430.23$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 67c | 419.52$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.1 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 18c | 418.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9a4ebacked Yes | 29c | 343.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 30c | 339.31$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 30c | 285.54$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.66 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 21c | 273$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 268.25$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 31c | 246.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 35c | 233.87$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 62c | 224.28$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.68 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 10c | 198$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 191.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 190$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 17c | 187$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 57c | 160$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 63c | 158.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 158$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 151.51$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 148.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 144.08$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 33c | 141.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 59c | 138$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 135$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 134.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…85ddbacked No | 61c | 129.64$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 125.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed Yes | 39c | 123$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 43c | 118.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 11c | 109.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 108.22$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 105$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 68c | 104.85$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 22c | 104.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 19c | 100.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 65c | 100.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5b…40cabacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6592…291ebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 28c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…5ac2backed Yes | 27c | 99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 92.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 87.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 36c | 82.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 80.71$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 38c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 80c | 79.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 20c | 74.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 36c | 72.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 42c | 71.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…255cbacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 16c | 69.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 68.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53b9…70dcbacked Yes | 33c | 64.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Yes | 42c | 50.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 65c | 49.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 48.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 47.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…8a61backed No | 71c | 45.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…7481backed Yes | 42c | 44.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 37c | 43.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 29c | 41.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 64c | 40.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 65c | 39.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 41c | 39.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 40c | 32.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 32c | 32.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 28.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.