Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61554ef064fa6ec40e9a2dd197e9b6c10334f905c39711da7f6f4656d7190064
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 15c | 1,170$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.1 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 1,003$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.21 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 687.49$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 27c | 630.38$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.23 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 15c | 599.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 591.94$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 31c | 569.95$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.14 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 567.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 40c | 529.82$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 27c | 493.91$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.63 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 70c | 480.98$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 462.04$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.03 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 415.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 57c | 407.7$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.57 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 32c | 387.65$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.47 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 38c | 379.4$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.94 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 27c | 319.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 9c | 301.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 48c | 299.56$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 35c | 275.34$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 68c | 258.31$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.09 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 76c | 248.6$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f28…49d6backed Yes | 50c | 244$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 37c | 243$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 231.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 45c | 228.36$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.73 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 63c | 226.66$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 214.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cba…e9dbbacked Yes | 12c | 213$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb850…ba65backed Yes | 62c | 212.62$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 210.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 56c | 200.35$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.59 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 14c | 193$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 8c | 192.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 187$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 20c | 184.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 12c | 178.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 8c | 167.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…5ac2backed Yes | 12c | 163.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 72c | 163.38$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 16c | 162.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 43c | 154.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 15c | 146$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…cc94backed Yes | 44c | 142.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ee23backed Yes | 64c | 140.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 65c | 134.26$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 131.72$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 46c | 129.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 55c | 123.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 12c | 122.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 44c | 121.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed Yes | 17c | 121.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 118.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 57c | 116.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 80c | 114.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.71 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 15c | 113.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 109.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5b…40cabacked Yes | 38c | 100.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 14c | 99.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 98.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 37c | 93.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a15…d62abacked Yes | 44c | 92.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 57c | 88.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 84.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 54c | 78.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 40c | 76.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 59c | 72.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 17c | 72.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 72.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 63c | 69.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 44c | 66.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 41c | 66.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 80c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 58c | 60.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…dfbcbacked Yes | 45c | 59.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 54c | 59.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce9…a994backed No | 60c | 58.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 19c | 58.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864e…b2efbacked Yes | 49c | 57.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 63c | 55.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 51c | 55.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 29c | 54.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 23c | 51.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6592…291ebacked No | 58c | 51.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 36c | 48.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 43.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 53c | 42.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…59dabacked Yes | 24c | 41.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 78c | 40.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.