Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81d0c5a03691584b9e2a7e80c33681cd3b32f7d02f533edd7a8e685f113ffa1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 1,849$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 1,280$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 1,259$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 60c | 1,227$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.92 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,051$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.64 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 49c | 763.73$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.13 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 43c | 762.08$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.27 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 14c | 600$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 23c | 568.22$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.41 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 520.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 4c | 457.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.41 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 19c | 439.17$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.34 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed Yes | 54c | 410.6$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…1444backed No | 36c | 403.95$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 38c | 360.98$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.65 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b1…ab05backed Yes | 5c | 358.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.08 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 52c | 319.3$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed Yes | 47c | 314.08$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.92 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 11c | 310.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.42 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 19c | 299.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.01 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 35c | 297.09$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.21 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 53c | 283.26$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.51 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 276$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.53 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f28…49d6backed Yes | 39c | 273.61$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 6c | 268.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.18 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…e312backed Yes | 21c | 237.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.91 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 60c | 227.34$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.46 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 23c | 214.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 17c | 214.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 27c | 209.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 209.19$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 63c | 201.89$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.41 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 15c | 200.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.9 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 11c | 198$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 187.86$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.17 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 9c | 178.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.36 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 67c | 178.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 158.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 154$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 30c | 136.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 70c | 132.82$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 26c | 132.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 41c | 129.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 18c | 126.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…986bbacked Yes | 18c | 121.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.33 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 36c | 99.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 16c | 96.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.37 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 48c | 69.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…dfbcbacked Yes | 40c | 66.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…255cbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 37c | 59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 69c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 28c | 54.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d31…8468backed Yes | 75c | 52.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a15…d62abacked Yes | 33c | 50.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 24c | 43.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de2…1998backed No | 34c | 43.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 32c | 39.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 41c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Yes | 34c | 37.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…6490backed Yes | 42c | 36.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 65c | 35.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 33c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be9…d313backed Yes | 34c | 29.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…057ebacked Yes | 56c | 27.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 47c | 26.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…141abacked Yes | 73c | 25.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 54c | 19.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.