Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda019e8ec08fc7afa92daa3c6525f15d8ce9672b086cfbe9ebd05bdd0ab4d97f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 1,073$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 54c | 614.97$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.98 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d8…0a12backed Yes | 48c | 507.91$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 7c | 479.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 43c | 464.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 359.81$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 43c | 351.68$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.9 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 46c | 320$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.83 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 307.09$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 6c | 300.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 58c | 262.79$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.37 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 40c | 255.25$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 243.26$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 28c | 227$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 43c | 220.44$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 14c | 206.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 27c | 189.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 55c | 188.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 186.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed Yes | 31c | 184.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 155.93$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 30c | 155.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 62c | 152.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 56c | 142.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 39c | 126.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 44c | 118$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 15c | 116.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 104.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed Yes | 42c | 103.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 102.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 99.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 18c | 94.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 16c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 88.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 66c | 84.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 15c | 79.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 14c | 77.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 43c | 77.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 15c | 72.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 36c | 69.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 68.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 64c | 65.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 38c | 65.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…9874backed Yes | 76c | 65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 64.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 59.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 41c | 58.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 57.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 56.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 24c | 50.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 47.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 42c | 46.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 46.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 51c | 46.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed Yes | 42c | 44.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 32c | 42.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 57c | 38.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 49c | 36.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 55c | 36.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…5c14backed Yes | 46c | 33.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 47c | 31.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked No | 58c | 28.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 57c | 26.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked No | 76c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 59c | 25.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 25.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 63c | 24.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 56c | 24.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 60c | 23.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 23.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 23.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 21.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 60c | 21.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…c023backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 56c | 17.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.