TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,082

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,838 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6868…5198backed Yes6c1,073$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.421,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No54c614.97$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.9838243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97d8…0a12backed Yes48c507.91$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.69862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes7c479.24$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.729436.2%34 W · 60 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+94.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes43c464.02$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes46c359.81$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.195,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes43c351.68$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.92,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes46c320$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8311438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No64c307.09$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.331,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed Yes6c300.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1817940.8%73 W · 106 L+29.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+113.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xb226…4163backed No58c262.79$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.3713672.1%98 W · 38 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes40c255.25$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9620452%106 W · 98 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No77c243.26$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.42,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes28c227$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4517524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd969…0932backed Yes43c220.44$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944134.1%14 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes14c206.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.982,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6396…7183backed Yes27c189.47$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4510827.8%30 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No55c188.44$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7359923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No63c186.99$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa982…6fd1backed Yes31c184.74$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.453540%14 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No75c155.93$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.892,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes30c155.27$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.091,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed No62c152.13$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1639543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No56c142.96$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.969,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes39c126.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.811,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes44c118$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8436930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes15c116.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No60c104.1$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.824,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa110…dc18backed Yes42c103.95$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443534.3%12 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No56c102.08$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.844,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes36c99.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes18c94.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.632,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c90$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.43,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed Yes16c90$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.538146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes17c88.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.521,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No66c84.04$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.342,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes15c79.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7353951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes14c77.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9411856.8%67 W · 51 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb0b5…e373backed Yes43c77.05$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1315128.5%43 W · 108 L-12.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed Yes15c72.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.178655.8%48 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No36c69.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9715236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No71c68.7$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.822,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes64c65.74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0910434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes38c65.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.688247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes25c65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2547738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0368…9874backed Yes76c65$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No62c64.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.61,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.286949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No59c59.68$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.286,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes41c58.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9728546.3%132 W · 153 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No74c57.47$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.882,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c56.42$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.879,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No60c55$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.861,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes48c52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.961,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes24c50.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.936949.3%34 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.514833.1%49 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2434846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No64c47.05$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.071,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes42c46.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5462137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No65c46.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.53,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes51c46.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5334935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes43c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.353,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18ec…f311backed Yes42c44.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.634042.5%17 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes32c42.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5129927.8%83 W · 216 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes69c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.756439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.241752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.82,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.345,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No53c39.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.885049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed No57c38.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5718240.1%73 W · 109 L-16.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No58c38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9340162.6%251 W · 150 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes49c36.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0389951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No55c36.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.211,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8dd…5c14backed Yes46c33.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.411625%4 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1582742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes47c31.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9915347.1%72 W · 81 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1242555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17ea…7838backed Yes43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.97057.1%40 W · 30 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaaf7…443bbacked No58c28.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.273748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No58c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.394,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73e0…e538backed Yes45c27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.157245.8%33 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No57c26.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.381,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c72…825ebacked No76c26.27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.274568.9%31 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No59c25.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3328163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No66c25.02$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes63c24.88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.687642.1%32 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No56c24.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8471057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e4…7718backed No60c23.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.444367.4%29 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No56c23.28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.214,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No53c23.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.871,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No54c23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6426265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No54c22.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2268867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c21.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.755,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x556b…4e33backed No60c21.25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.47342.5%31 W · 42 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.81,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0082…c023backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db6…e1f8backed No56c17.95$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9411157.7%64 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.