Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x721793bedf98e523f9479ac539237bee4c11876c191eb60b6fcf07a5d0077c62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 5c | 956.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 16c | 665.18$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 15c | 560.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 11c | 335.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 20c | 333.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 277$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 24c | 259.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 259.11$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 235.81$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 213.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 11c | 176.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 13c | 162.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 116.23$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 14c | 114.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 112.21$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…dc18backed Yes | 25c | 104.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 24c | 94.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 75.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 15c | 69.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 61.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 56.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 53.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 39c | 45.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 41c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 37c | 30.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 78c | 30.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed Yes | 35c | 28.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 72c | 22.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 20.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ee…e90bbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…eceabacked No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.