TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,057

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,488 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f74…8774backed Yes29c1,685$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.2521236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No7c1,042$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.842,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf742…400ebacked Yes20c787.77$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.1611614.7%17 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No19c727.71$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6238243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No10c590.49$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0139951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No7c549.68$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.834,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked No6c481.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8725541.2%105 W · 150 L+22.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes38c450$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.294,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No21c406.78$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.436,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No11c393.31$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes29c363.23$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.9636930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed No74c311.44$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2305752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No79c287.52$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.2961760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No63c284.57$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.371,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed No77c259.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No5c254.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.921,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No29c243.91$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.42,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No77c222.52$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.3719060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes33c210$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.9311438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbab…9c6dbacked Yes31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1381353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes34c195.17$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.042,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No53c178.88$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4359923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No68c169.49$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2967158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No9c166.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes56c162.08$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8879947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed Yes10c156.12$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.3317940.8%73 W · 106 L+29.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+113.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes26c153.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.0813430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes37c150$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.188028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes80c146$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2933561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No12c138.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5695852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes75c132.73$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2834922.9%80 W · 269 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe2…eb81backed Yes40c131.33$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.32560%15 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No70c130.06$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.814,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No68c127.98$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.464,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No27c124.08$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.562,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No63c123.35$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1641752%217 W · 200 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No19c113$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1948261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes31c112.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6817524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c104.21$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.95,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No33c101.73$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.252,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2912853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1104…1f70backed Yes36c99.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9914151.8%73 W · 68 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa982…6fd1backed Yes42c97.41$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.883540%14 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No70c97$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.053,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No71c95.08$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x242e…d2f9backed Yes11c94.52$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.521838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes68c92.14$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.884,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No34c91.56$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.912,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No27c88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.975,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae92…caf0backed Yes72c83.89$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.89540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes33c83$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6197152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No34c80.3$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.361,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed No19c80$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.838146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No28c76.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.215236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes21c75.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.798641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes36c74.56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.377642.1%32 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6240…54c0backed No28c74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.742157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes32c71.1$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.029,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…79a9backed No80c70$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8850%4 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No42c67$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.91,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bdc…a0babacked No75c66.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508068.8%55 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes26c64.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2410434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No62c64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.684,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes18c63.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No77c61$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.973,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6da…9270backed Yes28c53.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.66862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick35cpaid+94%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed Yes25c52.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4739543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No69c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.43,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes27c45.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4746232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes32c44.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3562137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes49c43.02$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.026439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes73c41.92$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3219166.5%127 W · 64 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No71c41.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.521,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes28c41.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.653,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No69c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.62,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No61c39.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1289951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No67c38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3240162.6%251 W · 150 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7831…a330backed Yes28c36.94$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.733327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes68c36.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.865466.7%36 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No68c36.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No71c35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.992,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa47e…261cbacked No73c33.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.551656.3%9 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick74cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2471057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes65c29.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes63c29.09$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.748356.6%47 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd322…8503backed No79c28.83$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.78655.8%48 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c72…825ebacked Yes72c27.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.684568.9%31 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbe2…f54abacked No78c25.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010744.9%48 W · 59 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No70c23.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.274,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No48c23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.939262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xe9d5…ce23backed No68c21.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8815062.7%94 W · 56 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db9…a4a8backed No57c21.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.115731.6%18 W · 39 L-16.6wins-0.29per pick61cpaid-52.7%equal weight27-0.20 edge/pick
0x87ec…138fbacked No78c21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3811735.9%42 W · 75 L-18.6wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-38.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb226…4163backed No68c21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2813672.1%98 W · 38 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.672624.8%180 W · 546 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe13b…6747backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102548%12 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked No66c19.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1331748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2470…7ae6backed No74c19.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.497058.6%41 W · 29 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b22…6f69backed Yes65c19.47$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.812347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.