Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87b15d59eb1a4da119825e2c5059b9a5eb520a9bd7ed3fd705c58590962621a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 68c | 3,384$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.09 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 32c | 1,650$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.16 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 27c | 1,185$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.48 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 947.26$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 40c | 940.9$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.21 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 35c | 900.42$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 883.78$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.65 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 44c | 834.64$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.12 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 55c | 829.28$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.95 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 65c | 644.2$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 35c | 574.31$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.58 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 30c | 539.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 56c | 467.7$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.32 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 15c | 421.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed No | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked No | 32c | 364.51$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.66 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 49c | 354.49$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.48 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 338$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 330.4$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 63c | 303.27$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.39 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 40c | 300.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.28 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 33c | 298$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 275.15$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed Yes | 66c | 272.12$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 263.15$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 38c | 259.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 259.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 253.44$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8a…6cf4backed No | 64c | 249.52$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8d…5ed9backed Yes | 64c | 244.66$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 242.45$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.69 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 73c | 231.28$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.31 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 36c | 229.76$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 227.25$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.04 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 220.84$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 20c | 209.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.01 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 33c | 201.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 200.02$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 32c | 199$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 196.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 42c | 192.86$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 42c | 190$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 181.21$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 76c | 177.87$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.77 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 177.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 28c | 173.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 37c | 171$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 45c | 167.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 46c | 166.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 29c | 166.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 44c | 159.84$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 154.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 30c | 154.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 46c | 153.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 36c | 149.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 55c | 149.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 137.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.7 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 49c | 132.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 30c | 128.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 32c | 127.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 124.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 58c | 120.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…11adbacked Yes | 34c | 119.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 45c | 117.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 65c | 116.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 48c | 113.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 48c | 110.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 57c | 106$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 105.76$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 38c | 102.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 102.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…07d3backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…a129backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 70c | 99.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 44c | 99.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 98.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 95.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1a…b51fbacked Yes | 67c | 92.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…c7a8backed No | 65c | 92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 91.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 54c | 90.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed No | 30c | 90$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 25c | 88.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc46…3220backed No | 50c | 87.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 33c | 86.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 74c | 83.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 83.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1d51backed Yes | 43c | 81.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed No | 76c | 80.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.