Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ff0ed9b8dd44b336be0ecdcca8e61c2bd28ecf6c3988ca7fbdf14e14232a52c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 5c | 4,275$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.13 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 33c | 3,755$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.88 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 6c | 3,319$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.05 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,463$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.87 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 11c | 2,453$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.67 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 43c | 2,150$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.21 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 22c | 1,714$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.09 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…087fbacked No | 73c | 1,690$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 4c | 1,353$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 58c | 1,332$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.91 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 26c | 1,298$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.58 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 60c | 1,281$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.93 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 18c | 986.65$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.88 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 8c | 957.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 12c | 951.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.03 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed No | 65c | 902.91$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.25 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 7c | 900.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 14c | 799.46$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.06 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 57c | 789.41$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.52 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 774.48$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.2 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 2c | 599.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 49c | 547.98$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.45 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 529.61$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 500.86$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 15c | 466.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 4c | 433.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 61c | 430$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.01 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 52c | 415.77$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.84 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 52c | 407.49$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 4c | 402.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 393.03$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 6c | 347.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 8c | 338.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 11c | 335.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 57c | 327.91$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.64 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 319.4$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 13c | 301.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 16c | 299.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 7c | 293.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 13c | 285$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 65c | 279.07$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.16 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 16c | 252.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 50c | 245.07$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.57 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8d…5ed9backed Yes | 41c | 233.73$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 49c | 224.47$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.12 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 60c | 212.48$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 5c | 211.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 71c | 211.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…e0a9backed Yes | 10c | 205.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 12c | 204.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 204.52$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 200.03$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.73 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed No | 30c | 200$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 45c | 186.68$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 66c | 184.44$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 49c | 181.33$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…c000backed Yes | 11c | 175.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd3…a0a2backed Yes | 13c | 174.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 173.91$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed No | 78c | 153.98$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x56ab…784ebacked Yes | 49c | 140.93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 139.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 19c | 139.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 7c | 137.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 8c | 122.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 55c | 115.77$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 13c | 111.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 52c | 106.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 12c | 103$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…a129backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 98.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…875abacked Yes | 66c | 94.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…0f46backed Yes | 53c | 94.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 58cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 27c | 91.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…4186backed No | 55c | 91.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3b…2bf8backed Yes | 25c | 91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 53c | 87.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 84.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 38c | 80.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f83…88ddbacked Yes | 38c | 79.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 63c | 79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 64c | 75.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 72c | 73.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 62c | 71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 68.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.