Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d1c752c8b9b5fbc4422b168a7b47c7266e411c7112d71f326a358409ec435c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 23c | 1,489$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.29 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 1,197$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,054$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.57 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 921.21$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.89 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 27c | 877.86$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.91 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 61c | 831.05$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.09 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 31c | 754.43$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.08 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6887…041abacked No | 6c | 714.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 445.45$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 436.4$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 13c | 428.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.64 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 19c | 412.13$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.53 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 339$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.61 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 30c | 320.71$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed Yes | 35c | 314.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.02 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 306.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 57c | 304.61$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.12 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 298.2$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.38 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 263.88$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.25 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 259.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.72 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 64c | 247.41$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.07 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 241.11$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 53c | 240.28$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.36 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 36c | 236.16$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.37 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 46c | 220$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 65c | 207.67$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.83 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…3ac9backed Yes | 65c | 204.93$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 203.88$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 36c | 203.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.56 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 51c | 198.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 71c | 169.75$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 153.6$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.41 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 37c | 149.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…b0d1backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 29c | 140$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 15c | 140$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 33c | 140$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 121.04$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 23c | 120$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 34c | 119.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 61c | 118.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 51c | 107.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc46…3220backed No | 50c | 106.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 74c | 106.93$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes | 42c | 105.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.24 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 105$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 45c | 103.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e0…25f9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.86 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 99.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 64c | 98.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 49c | 98.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 96.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 47c | 93.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 56c | 93.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 68c | 92.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 75c | 89.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 85.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 82.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 64c | 82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 28c | 82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 79c | 80.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 32c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 36c | 77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 26c | 75.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 73.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 66c | 71.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 65c | 71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 38c | 70.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 70.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed Yes | 30c | 69.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +6.7wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 32c | 69.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 68.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 23c | 65.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 61.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 34c | 60.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 65c | 60.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 59.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…2ed6backed Yes | 58c | 51.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 55c | 50.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…c7a8backed Yes | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 39c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c6…9398backed No | 33c | 46.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 61c | 44.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 70c | 43.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.