Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x983305040694e32df1fcb783ea9a97345de333af1eda4d97ebf6fe768c41016c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 2c | 2,006$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,582$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 4c | 1,541$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,380$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 5c | 762.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 674.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 585.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 4c | 580.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 4c | 527.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 488.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 3c | 436.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…c000backed Yes | 11c | 400.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 5c | 400.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 5c | 382.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 4c | 339.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 9c | 325$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 6c | 321.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 77c | 281.69$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 235.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…66bfbacked Yes | 10c | 223.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 14c | 189.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 9c | 174.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 9c | 169$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 13c | 110.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 24c | 103.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 11c | 99.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 12c | 96.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 14c | 84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed No | 79c | 74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +6.7wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 25c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 76c | 33.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.