Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64cf085b98d4aef505cefd66de06e56c65516f29f388896a781d81a55d79026d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x433a…38e5backed Up | 43c | 5,411$2,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,078.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -42%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Down | 58c | 3,056$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777.51 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 38c | 3,000$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,845 | 952 | 40.1%382 W · 570 L | -71.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Down | 59c | 2,270$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.37 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 53c | 2,116$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.24 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 53c | 1,770$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.07 | 1,294 | 24.1%312 W · 982 L | -59.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Up | 33c | 1,525$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +233%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Up | 41c | 1,100$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed Down | 73c | 1,019$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd78…837bbacked Down | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed Down | 65c | 916$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.47 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…589abacked Up | 58c | 889.04$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…867abacked Down | 61c | 865.22$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.78 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Up | 33c | 819.31$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.94 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x532f…e626backed Down | 71c | 816.99$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed Down | 62c | 759.95$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed Up | 35c | 622.07$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed Down | 51c | 559.07$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Down | 73c | 549.99$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.99 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Up | 21c | 521.04$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.62 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Up | 48c | 520$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.4 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Up | 26c | 500$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…3736backed Up | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed Up | 22c | 400$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…089fbacked Down | 21c | 400$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Up | 33c | 341.97$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.68 | 313 | 35.1%110 W · 203 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Down | 59c | 337.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Down | 56c | 327.61$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.81 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 60c | 314$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.7 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Up | 37c | 287.21$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.48 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Down | 51c | 270$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed Down | 13c | 256.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…8172backed Up | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Up | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…8b35backed Down | 77c | 250$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Up | 35c | 249.48$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.97 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…419cbacked Down | 64c | 240$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…17f4backed Down | 30c | 235.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd562…ec23backed Up | 67c | 205.06$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Up | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…b362backed Up | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Up | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x043c…442dbacked Down | 72c | 178.28$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc4…a340backed Down | 71c | 170$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Down | 61c | 159.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Down | 51c | 154.15$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Down | 51c | 148.84$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca4c…b5a3backed Up | 74c | 135.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb352…4fa1backed Down | 15c | 133.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…3c34backed Down | 65c | 128.21$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Up | 27c | 111$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…5468backed Down | 75c | 111$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 45c | 103.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 311 | 38.6%120 W · 191 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Down | 13c | 101.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe483…c63dbacked Up | 65c | 101.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…af0dbacked Up | 43c | 101$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Down | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe148…2c34backed Up | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9672…4289backed Down | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +97%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed Down | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…17b1backed Down | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3874…8933backed Down | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…9244backed Up | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3964…14f0backed Up | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3986…71fcbacked Down | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5571…89f0backed Up | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed Down | 72c | 95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed Up | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cd…55f6backed Up | 25c | 74.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Down | 44c | 73.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 376 | 51.1%192 W · 184 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…6d06backed Up | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Down | 63c | 66.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93ad…199ebacked Down | 61c | 59.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…857ebacked Down | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb61…9969backed Down | 50c | 52.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Down | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…9ffcbacked Down | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Up | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Down | 69c | 39.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 311 | 39.5%123 W · 188 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1,038 | 9.2%96 W · 942 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Up | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…404ebacked Up | 56c | 26.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf268…8143backed Up | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…b23ebacked Down | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…8deabacked Up | 78c | 18.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.