TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8bb0…c328

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
144
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 56 out of 100; worst China Taiwan at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT4447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+29.1%+$35.05
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.39
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+58.9%+$8.52
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+36.9%+$30.77
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.97
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$37.25
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$19.5
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+42%+$24.8
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.35
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$40.33
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+49.7%+$38.72
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$46.98
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.94
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+195.5%+$68.42
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+62.1%+$42.75
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+175%+$42.31
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.34
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+97.2%+$86.15
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$230.92
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.7
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.38
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+235.4%+$38.72
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.06
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.14
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT2532%8 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 28?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.6
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 20?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.93
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.61
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+266.8%+$138.33
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+66.8%+$132.67
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$27.93
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.33
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+209.4%+$77.47
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.43
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+71.2%+$20.8
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.99
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$65.88
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.69
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.76
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 4?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.85
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.34
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 27?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.26
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 24?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+90.7%+$41.94
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 23?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.42
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 16?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.59
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 15?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$8.82
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.83
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 6?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.2
All 25 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST2055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+78.6%+$44
Will Trump and Mamdani not shake hands on November 21 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$37.33
Will Trump say "Affordability" during Mamdani events on November 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+98.6%+$17.54
Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
Will Donald Trump issue 1 executive order in the week of October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.64
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+27.9%+$79.42
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$297Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$297.25
Will Trump say Erdogan / Turkey during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$48.02
Will Trump say Qatar during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+62.8%+$38.58
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on September 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$48.39
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.5
Will Donald Trump issue 15-19 executive orders in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will Donald Trump issue 20-24 executive orders in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$66
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$441Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT+37.5%+$165.7
Will Trump spend 7+ days golfing in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+78.9%+$25.56
Will Trump say "Governor" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$20.81
Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$91.74
Will Trump say "Obama" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.4
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+64.6%+$27.52
All 20 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+79.6%+$23.88
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+40.5%+$50.74
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$22.04
Will Trump say "Rwanda" or "Congo" 12+ times during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+43.7%+$12.01
Will Trump say "31 years" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$59.87
Will Trump say "Vicious" or "Brutal" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+174.5%+$56.08
Will Trump say "Machete" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Will Trump say "Communist" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+32.4%+$3.73
Will Donald Trump say "Nuclear" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$34
Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Egypt summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.09
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during Egypt summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.29
Will Trump say "Reconstruction" during Egypt summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.2
Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Erdogan" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+25.7%+$8.55
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+42.1%+$8.46
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.54
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$81.59
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.78
Will Keir Starmer say "Scotland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$61.74
Will Keir Starmer say "Reform" 4+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+80.7%+$12.58
Will Keir Starmer say "G20" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$24
New US sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justices by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT+100%+$50
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+169.8%+$617.94
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+100%+$20
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.01
Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$36.16
Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.84
Will Crin Antonescu win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.98
All 13 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2025, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+194.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$17.61
More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+160.4%+$86.28
Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.99
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+54%+$57.88
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+33.5%+$50.85
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+1,784.9%+$249.89
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$5.61
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.67
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.95
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+25%+$28.76
France vs. Spain: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+47.2%+$117.52
Spain vs. Belgium: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$35.79
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$30.23
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$80.07
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.09
Switzerland to win the second half?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$16.87
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.48
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+100%+$20
All 9 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement in 2025 on Monday over 50%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+31.1%+$17.22
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.