Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85c7644e45e70d4dacc28e42e107f75f391ceb450bffeed7f2a3d532c69596d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 2c | 1,140$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 825.67$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.93 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed Yes | 28c | 462.19$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.16 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 22c | 319.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.89 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 15c | 297.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 13c | 297.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 15c | 249.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 226.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 14c | 224.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 219.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 5c | 208.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 204.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 12c | 179.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 173.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 15c | 168.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 17c | 163.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 145.55$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 14c | 144.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 141.91$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 9c | 132.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 20c | 126.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…98d0backed Yes | 9c | 119.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 21c | 109.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 107.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 18c | 105.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 19c | 105.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 26c | 97.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 75c | 97.28$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 20c | 95.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 94.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 93.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 16c | 93.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 16c | 91.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 76c | 87.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 17c | 87.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 13c | 83.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 76c | 72.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 73c | 69.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 19c | 66.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 55.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…bb75backed Yes | 28c | 54.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 26c | 52.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 72c | 51.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 25c | 49.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 28c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 78c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 79c | 25.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 23.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 22.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 20.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 75c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked No | 74c | 19.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 74c | 19.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…c24fbacked No | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 80c | 15.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 15.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 76c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…19e0backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or below on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.