Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bcc0a5e856c08a0c038928a3ff84481365af4a4cc317f00cc3010ce91e5b96e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,386$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…5cb3backed Yes | 2c | 1,312$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,149$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 3c | 549.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 431.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 5c | 431.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 11c | 350.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 7c | 343$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 13c | 302$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 15c | 276.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 12c | 271.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf4…d969backed Yes | 16c | 261.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…ac63backed Yes | 16c | 250.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 5c | 233.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 11c | 232.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c8…2e9abacked Yes | 15c | 230.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfc…c4cebacked Yes | 8c | 221.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 8c | 181.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 13c | 178.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 11c | 163.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd5…8e6ebacked Yes | 8c | 163.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 162.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…bcc3backed Yes | 10c | 155.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 13c | 145.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked Yes | 11c | 136.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 116.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked Yes | 16c | 109.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…da03backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…05fbbacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 14c | 99.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945d…a5a0backed Yes | 12c | 97.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 12c | 93.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 89.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 12c | 87.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or below on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.