TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,278
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,415

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,278 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No8c1,674$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.442,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No12c1,566$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.41,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes56c742$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.86837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick18cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No25c718.97$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5184124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No16c588.59$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.824,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes65c576.37$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.9724466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No17c528.77$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2276755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c2b…36f4backed Yes32c462.69$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.57347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No49c314.59$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.53,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes38c314.29$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.292,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cff…468bbacked Yes62c300.1$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.2916263%102 W · 60 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No53c293.6$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.575,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes59c272.05$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.7514645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No6c264.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.491,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes30c258.66$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.11,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No16c248.21$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.141,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No35c239$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.984,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No66c229.06$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.3989661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No19c226.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3188650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No29c210.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.32,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No35c202.72$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3848919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c200.32$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7d7…1a16backed Yes80c192.57$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.013759.5%22 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…6ca1backed No67c182.46$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.255056%28 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-13%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x73ae…3b52backed Yes39c179.73$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.895738.6%22 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked No13c177.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3415923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed No7c174.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5541051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No42c164.56$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.414,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No67c156.06$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10511459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes37c148.14$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.863,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes32c147.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1521236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x87ba…da46backed Yes41c146.7$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4914635.6%52 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No70c143.04$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5920172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No56c142.87$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.543,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c132.12$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes30c125.18$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.8616724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No58c121.4$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4665353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9047…2959backed Yes44c112.92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.924257.1%24 W · 18 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes30c109.92$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.654,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No35c106.61$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.52,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No67c106.22$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.652,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No71c100.05$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.892,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes29c99.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes37c99.98$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.9929953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No70c97.44$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8165965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No29c90.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0371159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes31c86.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.0217831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No63c86.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9140265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked No67c84.89$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5751733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes28c81.79$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7818837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No69c81$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8947866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No36c77.41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6831219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xcf18…d9bfbacked Yes29c76.12$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.05333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No69c72.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011965.5%78 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x455c…e548backed No76c71.39$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.923348.5%16 W · 17 L-5.6wins-0.17per pick66cpaid-32.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes30c70$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4910434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No19c69.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.952,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f4…7518backed No73c68.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501070%7 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick68cpaid-1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes40c67.83$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.991,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Yes36c66.49$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.314447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd594…9d1bbacked Yes57c65.45$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.454245.2%19 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No68c62.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.111,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa255…5cbcbacked Yes62c60.89$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.133145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No46c60.79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0231050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No65c60$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.73,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x67f4…df0fbacked No63c55.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510265.7%67 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe978…ab29backed Yes67c55.5$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.556563.1%41 W · 24 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No69c53$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes43c52.92$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.081,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes39c52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6399949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8961…ab1abacked No68c51.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3525466.9%170 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3554232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.55832.8%19 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3344646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes45c49.02$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.240132.9%132 W · 269 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe256…0408backed Yes34c48.49$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.063641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes59c47.12$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3699962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes59c45.97$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.635,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No68c45.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2799963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No69c45.24$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.161,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d6…5411backed No51c45.06$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes33c44.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7216045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No70c40.07$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe399…b921backed No57c40.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237150.7%36 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f1…eceabacked Yes30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.23076.7%23 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+20.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc9d8…cea4backed Yes32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.43234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3025536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No39c38.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.028,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No71c38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.981,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9e1…7521backed Yes79c37.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.911546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.724,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c0f…652ebacked Yes74c33.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.64771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a3b…bd3bbacked Yes30c33.34$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.334020%8 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-44.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes48c33.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2825344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes46c32.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7342849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No73c32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3671464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.