TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,638
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,410

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,638 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No74c675.79$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9911652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No20c600.03$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.4112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7515…0d06backed No67c586.56$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.924161%25 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No49c483.58$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.153,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f11…53b0backed Yes60c321.57$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.575349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed No47c294.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1405752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes69c291.49$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.4939951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No20c232.68$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.752,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed No43c217.21$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.685054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd1e…862ebacked No38c196.93$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.238727.6%24 W · 63 L-10.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-54.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No7c176.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.34,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No18c172.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.986,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No40c163$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.225,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes60c158.6$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.175,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes33c151.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.91,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No20c149.27$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.64,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Yes38c148.85$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.07812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-67.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No47c144.58$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.514,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes27c111.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.325536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes42c102.72$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.337,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No51c102.19$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8649646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1638655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7521340.8%87 W · 126 L+23.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x78c2…53adbacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738737.9%33 W · 54 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes72c93.97$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5140265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x515f…a606backed No68c91$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8817553.1%93 W · 82 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x017c…f8efbacked Yes39c90.29$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.827642.1%32 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No59c86.34$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3124164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No14c81.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3966543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes46c80.75$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.756439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No46c80$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.763,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06a3…fa45backed No63c80$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015660.9%95 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes44c78$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.689548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes27c73.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.371,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed No49c72.14$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.354447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes78c70.6$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7644945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed Yes25c70$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.838146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes71c67.96$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.042,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x363b…6ff7backed No80c65.07$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522060%12 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes38c65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.482,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf01d…bb31backed No66c64.44$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2816272.2%117 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes25c62.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8353951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes32c62.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.541,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed Yes79c61.72$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.938860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes42c59.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.167633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes60c58.97$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4410463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes76c54.86$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.952,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No25c53.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1848919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes45c52.81$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0662555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes39c51.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.81,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes45c48.09$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.498356.6%47 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40b8…7410backed Yes71c47.67$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.83366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No24c46.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.073,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes25c46.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7214746.9%69 W · 78 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes32c46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2822232%71 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x529c…64b6backed Yes44c44.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.095719.3%11 W · 46 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes74c42.8$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2341966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No37c41.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.031,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x632e…6a56backed Yes49c40.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.984839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes69c39.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.43560%21 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes41c36.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.733,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes50c36.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.62,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3580…714ebacked No59c36.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.72152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd526…3d7cbacked No56c33.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No60c33.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.82,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5020…8d64backed Yes46c31.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.431172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x71a1…a26bbacked No70c31.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.061464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes73c31.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.565353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…dd86backed No37c30.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.598564.7%55 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes39c30.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.862,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes42c30.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.732,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes45c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.517831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c29.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.891,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes64c26.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7322645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xccf7…62cebacked No59c26.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.76540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c39…cf4abacked Yes42c26.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.492544%11 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c84…593ebacked Yes49c26.61$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.661145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc66c…7c32backed Yes76c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64070%28 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b72…ec52backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+79%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c24.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe71f…b706backed Yes50c23.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.931136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-29.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf424…6e3ebacked No70c21.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156266.1%41 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes52c21.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.251,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes77c21.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.921964.8%142 W · 77 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5728…d2b2backed Yes73c20.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.461668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+51.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x56b2…8f14backed No58c20.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d55…7cbabacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10230%0 W · 23 L-6.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8fed…a1f9backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.83,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63ac…3fc9backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.88366.3%55 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9dd…4226backed Yes65c18.54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.544045%18 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30fe…74bcbacked No69c18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3418671%132 W · 54 L+19.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed Yes68c16.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2412853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.634065%26 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No71c14.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.171,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.