Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0063527a03d09f335af3126301596fd4bda5d320328e3626498af3dfb9e461a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2319…905bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,624$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,236$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.51 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,033$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 861.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 4c | 650.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 10c | 594.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ff…4008backed Yes | 7c | 585.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 24c | 565.25$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.86 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 484.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 479.87$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 12c | 441.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 436.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 10c | 400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 12c | 389.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 348.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 13c | 341.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 333.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 16c | 311.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 19c | 310$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 296.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 295.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…0a00backed Yes | 8c | 278.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked Yes | 15c | 263.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 252.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 13c | 247.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 10c | 212.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 6c | 204.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 12c | 184.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 7c | 183.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 15c | 177.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 168.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 14c | 162.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 13c | 160.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Yes | 38c | 146.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 16c | 127.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 16c | 126.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 121.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…41bcbacked Yes | 13c | 118.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 14c | 114.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…8c79backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 96.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 94.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 16c | 93.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 14c | 91.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 16c | 69.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 44c | 67.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 18c | 58.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 45c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 75c | 51.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 43.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…bbbebacked No | 73c | 43.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…ddfebacked No | 78c | 42.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 36c | 37.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 71c | 37.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 35.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 64c | 18.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.