Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80811e98e4b409a353ab445a294a2290a8b9a4eecc7a08120feb8ae6daacd9ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 13c | 1,013$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.13 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 663.04$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 399.36$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 30c | 379.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.19 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 18c | 364.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked No | 68c | 303.64$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 299.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 32c | 287.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 74c | 257.97$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 67c | 220.03$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 219.93$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 15c | 195.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 29c | 185.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 71c | 170.79$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 29c | 160$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed No | 79c | 134$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 31c | 133.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 69c | 131.27$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 28c | 130.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 128.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 124.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 115.47$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 53c | 111.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 28c | 103$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Yes | 28c | 101.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 68c | 91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 67c | 88.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 23c | 85.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 29c | 79.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 78.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 74.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 67c | 74.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 34c | 72.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 33c | 69.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…cf4abacked Yes | 43c | 67.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 26c | 64.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 63.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 63.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 67c | 54.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 55c | 54.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 22c | 52.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 48.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 49c | 44.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 44.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 43c | 43.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 33c | 42.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 41.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 40.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 72c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 31c | 38.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 33.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 64c | 33.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 72c | 32.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 74c | 31.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 31.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 48c | 30.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7389…9b89backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…4e25backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 73c | 14.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.