Commodities · resolved market
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ebd5cd7a3751fc3e885062ec26d0a0278c30f31859d6ff90b9d747029d25fd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 0c | 9,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 7c | 2,518$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.35 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 10c | 1,766$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.67 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x031c…b73dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,377$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…31adbacked Yes | 37c | 1,089$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd87f…d3e4backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa140…5531backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 657.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 10c | 600.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 7c | 378.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…38d9backed Yes | 13c | 357.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 14c | 350.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +111%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…b0febacked Yes | 9c | 325.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 65c | 310.05$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.68 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 5c | 308.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 8c | 282.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…efd6backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 10c | 249.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 10c | 244.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd5…382cbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec3…e98dbacked Yes | 11c | 187.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 182.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 7c | 159.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 9c | 132.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 13c | 130.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 15c | 122.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 41c | 109.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3dba…d44fbacked Yes | 10c | 103.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 12c | 97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 15c | 82.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed Yes | 16c | 78.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8e…5ff9backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7221…82e7backed Yes | 20c | 60.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 40c | 31.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?this page
- Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?No won
- Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?Yes won
- Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?No won
- Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.