TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcacc…2eac

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
96
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Commodities, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 54 out of 100; worst Champions League at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT5632.1%18 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$39
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.35
Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.2
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.58
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+199.4%+$293.19
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.87
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.49
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.37
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+76%+$163.87
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+51.4%+$160.31
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$61
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+354%+$691.37
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$264.01
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.49
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+183.2%+$36.65
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+268.2%+$905.32
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.15
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.74
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.8
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+307.9%+$46.19
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+338.3%+$138.69
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$17.04
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.5
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.14
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.55
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$81
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.84
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-79%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+173.2%+$147.56
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.67
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.6
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.1
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.16
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.3
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.19
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.5
Luis Díaz: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.99
All 13 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+629.9%+$207.87
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.95
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.05
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.65
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.07
All 10 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+38.2%+$22.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.