Commodities · resolved market
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9fb87e53db0da655ddee155cdbf4a77c47d73c912ac3cd6e35efbab1b6b282a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $288,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $259,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 8c | 27,002$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.34 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 30c | 15,828$4,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,734.09 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…6be1backed Yes | 67c | 12,050$8,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,074.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 10,450$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…9048backed Yes | 1c | 8,523$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4de…c949backed No | 35c | 8,236$2,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,376.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 1c | 7,166$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 28c | 7,074$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,071.82 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 3c | 6,000$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.23 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 66c | 5,638$3,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925.92 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked No | 44c | 5,269$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,958.64 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 14c | 5,204$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.08 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,920$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.23 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 31c | 3,500$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.97 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 77c | 3,479$2,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 46c | 3,351$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.93 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed Yes | 37c | 3,061$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed Yes | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 17c | 2,833$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,750$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 18c | 2,600$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,513$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…a3acbacked Yes | 56c | 2,455$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…66b7backed No | 63c | 1,986$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,659$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…7a0ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,579$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5129…add5backed Yes | 76c | 1,488$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,435$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 68c | 1,382$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.84 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef5…343ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,350$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 12c | 1,323$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.57 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 45c | 1,251$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.74 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 1,190$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 62c | 1,180$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.89 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 42c | 1,180$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked No | 77c | 1,171$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.86 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 53c | 1,100$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.99 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d5…08bcbacked Yes | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 26c | 998.98$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +240.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 56c | 998.97$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.75 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 45c | 996$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.11 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 70c | 992.32$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.72 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 62c | 968.06$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.53 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…e4e0backed No | 80c | 956$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed No | 80c | 930.72$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +250.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…a183backed Yes | 4c | 923$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…16f6backed Yes | 65c | 900$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 43c | 826.11$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.05 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 77c | 800$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d1…5407backed Yes | 1c | 785.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked No | 60c | 752.94$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.86 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…997fbacked Yes | 63c | 750$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 38c | 728.88$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.32 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 28c | 720$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.4 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 18c | 589.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ae…c1a9backed Yes | 51c | 583.39$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed No | 54c | 581.75$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 46c | 556.7$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.83 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 29c | 549.11$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 45c | 544.75$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.73 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 4c | 508.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 25c | 504.01$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.82 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 15c | 500$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 42c | 498.84$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.89 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1b…cef3backed Yes | 65c | 496$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 13c | 494.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…e5b5backed Yes | 18c | 485.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 23c | 484.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.65 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…f468backed Yes | 72c | 467.94$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 49c | 461$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.81 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a5…8a20backed Yes | 18c | 456$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 53c | 450$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0317backed Yes | 46c | 448.63$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 57c | 444$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.08 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…62b4backed Yes | 55c | 424.55$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 380.39$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.97 | 184 | 40.2%74 W · 110 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…c364backed Yes | 68c | 354.31$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 34c | 353.23$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.85 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 35c | 350$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 50c | 346.67$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 62c | 333$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…d92dbacked No | 60c | 331.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.1 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 41c | 324.26$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.31 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x674f…6888backed Yes | 72c | 321.41$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 36c | 310.82$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.05 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee05…9bd7backed Yes | 65c | 305.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb69…361ebacked No | 40c | 302.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.22 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked No | 42c | 295.83$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 39c | 285.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 36c | 280.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.56 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 65c | 272.38$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 16c | 269.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…81d2backed No | 23c | 266.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 19cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.