Commodities · resolved market
Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9db07f4b9ee14ce2ce4098a6b2b2465151da032086755b0842622025d918e8ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbc…f38bbacked Yes | 1c | 12,086$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 9,353$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 2c | 7,777$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.6 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 2c | 5,124$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 4,142$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.08 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193e…3aabbacked Yes | 2c | 3,745$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,627$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 2,272$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,687$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3b…f4a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,405$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…3d0dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,365$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes | 5c | 1,001$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef5…343ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…55b0backed Yes | 7c | 999.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 12c | 835.21$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.35 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes | 3c | 606.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 13c | 228.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa28d…a37cbacked Yes | 9c | 215$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 13c | 204.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…a3acbacked Yes | 9c | 110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73f4…a1cfbacked Yes | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 45c | 26.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.