Commodities · resolved market
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64e7cc36eeaf00c8f5faeaf586676c0476177924747ff06def38883fd26d5c78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 3c | 13,233$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.94 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 1c | 8,765$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 35c | 4,994$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.02 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 69c | 4,224$2,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.31 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 1c | 3,691$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 4c | 3,450$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…c577backed Yes | 12c | 2,300$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,803$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,602$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,536$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,521$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,492$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 23c | 1,443$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.21 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 66c | 1,382$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes | 19c | 1,279$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…fa96backed Yes | 5c | 1,103$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef5…343ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,085$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,059$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,058$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 60c | 1,050$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…55b0backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 2c | 999.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f6…1c6fbacked Yes | 2c | 990.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ae…c1a9backed Yes | 14c | 815.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 32c | 767.05$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.3 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 758.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 29c | 602.39$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.19 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 14c | 590$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.55 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 6c | 558.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 28c | 516.95$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.75 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed No | 71c | 470$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.49 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed No | 66c | 430.98$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.53 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 370.9$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed Yes | 14c | 357$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfe…07a5backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 64c | 300$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.1 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 20c | 295.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…d5e9backed No | 69c | 289.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 16c | 267.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 250.76$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 223.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 33c | 221.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 69c | 217.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 76c | 211.64$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 74c | 202.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b19…6759backed Yes | 20c | 199.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 20c | 193.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 154.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…82abbacked No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 30c | 145$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked Yes | 27c | 133.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…7a10backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…f62cbacked Yes | 8c | 126.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…1c5dbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 70c | 96.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 72c | 91$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630b…3339backed No | 75c | 80.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 30c | 78.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.7wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked No | 73c | 77.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…c267backed No | 69c | 76.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…679ebacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb14f…d825backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…a3acbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed No | 71c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked Yes | 32c | 49.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…7855backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe96d…a747backed No | 69c | 30.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 29.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41d…53e9backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…3ae7backed No | 66c | 22.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993b…dedabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.