Commodities · resolved market
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c58bfcdfd03d3aeb4f973dfe8b70f88d8e9bd630a421222682efb2cc0f05fb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $525,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $495,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $525,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked No | 27c | 23,844$6,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,291.97 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 8c | 18,790$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,375.59 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 0c | 15,984$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,937.97 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 15,120$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,002.69 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 13c | 12,721$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670.42 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 1c | 10,498$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,408.12 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +348.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 68c | 8,393$5,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,724.89 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…66b7backed No | 80c | 8,134$6,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644.53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47a…2f05backed Yes | 30c | 7,301$2,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,204.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 6c | 7,217$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,817.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +173.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 7c | 6,784$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…2bfcbacked Yes | 29c | 6,071$1,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,790.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…2f60backed No | 73c | 5,887$4,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.72 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 39c | 4,455$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729.37 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…72cebacked No | 2c | 4,070$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,982.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,583.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed No | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,880 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +250.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…05eabacked No | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,980 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +1,917.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada0…8e34backed Yes | 28c | 3,949$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 45c | 3,583$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.35 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 3,502$2,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.05 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 8c | 3,500$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.48 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b31…b2f0backed No | 58c | 3,493$2,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…bb70backed Yes | 27c | 3,441$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…55b0backed No | 7c | 2,944$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,743.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 15c | 2,785$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.95 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 45c | 2,604$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.99 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…7ee3backed No | 5c | 2,595$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,465.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +180.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 23c | 2,558$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.33 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 47c | 2,435$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.8 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…1a5abacked Yes | 11c | 2,207$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 15c | 2,202$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,877.94 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,130$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 3c | 2,059$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,993.49 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…b5c3backed No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +383.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…61dcbacked No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…52f9backed Yes | 18c | 1,866$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 46c | 1,771$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.73 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +98%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,713$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 68c | 1,586$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.65 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 14c | 1,454$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.47 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc682…17bbbacked No | 79c | 1,431$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd169…8ff6backed No | 5c | 1,400$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,820.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 46c | 1,318$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.69 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…6f9cbacked No | 3c | 1,292$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.07 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +113%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 9c | 1,161$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +123%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 16c | 1,089$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.82 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 1c | 1,063$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.81 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +321.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 2c | 1,045$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.75 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 65c | 1,030$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked No | 62c | 1,020$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.94 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed No | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…9048backed Yes | 5c | 970.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed Yes | 24c | 965.98$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.62 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb003…97e1backed No | 4c | 958.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +305.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 20c | 930$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.12 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb69…361ebacked No | 3c | 905$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 48c | 899.99$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.4 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2574…144bbacked No | 5c | 884.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.13 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +185%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed Yes | 6c | 864.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…944dbacked Yes | 26c | 849.99$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.9 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b2…615dbacked No | 5c | 839.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +1,148.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 19c | 824.3$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.39 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 798.66$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.3 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 5c | 790.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.14 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 743.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.93 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5305…57b6backed No | 68c | 741.84$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 673.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…314bbacked Yes | 5c | 658.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed No | 3c | 654.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.79 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 10c | 643.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 14c | 636$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.61 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 37c | 599.64$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.84 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 590.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6384backed No | 29c | 562.15$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.95 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…f4bdbacked No | 4c | 559.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +710.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…e4e0backed No | 72c | 538$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 11c | 537$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 13c | 501.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 18c | 500.51$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 39cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6423…8317backed No | 3c | 492.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +370.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed No | 6c | 481.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.71 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +7.2wins | +0.32per pick | 42cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 3c | 452.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.45 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 4c | 444.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.88 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8932…eb14backed Yes | 16c | 425.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes | 5c | 423.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 4c | 418.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.08 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…171ebacked Yes | 12c | 403.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…d469backed Yes | 10c | 400.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…d92dbacked No | 4c | 400.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.39 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed No | 66c | 387.68$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.25 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 10c | 385.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 42c | 366.75$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 16c | 354.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f8…93c1backed No | 6c | 339.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +749.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7eccbacked Yes | 4c | 324.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…0197backed No | 64c | 310.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dde…d725backed Yes | 14c | 309.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d8…e86bbacked No | 6c | 307.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,438.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 73c | 307.32$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 4c | 304.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +211.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.