TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x272c…7f07

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
276
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Commodities, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 56 out of 100; worst Music at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT9524.2%23 W · 72 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 95 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.43
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+41.8%+$59
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.37
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.29
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$88
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.23
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$54
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.3
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+85.5%+$47.77
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$20.88
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.62
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.24
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+400%+$319.99
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.89
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.57
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.76
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.77
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$886Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$885.77
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.88
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.82
Showing 25 of 95 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT5735.1%20 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+1,823.1%+$544.15
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+47.8%+$97
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+248.4%+$41.57
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$711Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+33.1%+$235.68
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.5
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.5
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.75
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.6
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+42%+$41.4
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$130.07
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.91
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+458.1%+$249.57
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.75
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+70.7%+$34.39
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+443.6%+$392.51
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.78
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.3
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,318Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+35%+$461.47
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$380.1
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.06
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$21.6
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.2
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.76
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT3138.7%12 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+137.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+3,065.9%+$1,993.49
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.17
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$468Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$156.11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$755Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$755
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+74.5%+$10
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+352.2%+$52.64
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$73
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+90%+$209.67
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$252.8
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.5
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.76
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.86
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.47
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+219.7%+$62.05
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+33%+$22.48
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.12
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$58.8
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$54.86
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.5
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.95
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT2227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-44.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 30,000-40,000?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+186.7%+$104.22
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$325.95
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.28
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+106.1%+$298.25
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.38
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.63
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$317
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.27
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.01
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+81.2%+$44.8
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.58
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.94
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$115.5
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$154.47
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.43
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.4
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+70.4%+$82.6
All 22 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.41
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.84
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$35.32
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+28.1%+$70.56
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+115.1%+$12.35
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.83
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.06
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.81
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+25%+$62.84
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.18
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.83
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+28.4%+$7.19
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$676Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+35.8%+$242.27
Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than $17m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will "The Drama" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.3
All 15 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+49.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPOlast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-67.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukrainelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+726.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+726.3%+$117.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: ZEDI Esports vs GamerLegion (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group Abacked ZEDI Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Ian Machado Garry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.78
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.