Commodities · resolved market
Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb31a925459bbe6832c9fa224f94ab0c8000b57b623c1d9ced9b583d402269b66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 6c | 11,839$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.36 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…4b55backed Yes | 2c | 11,249$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 4c | 7,024$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.08 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,583$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.83 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 2c | 5,146$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,000$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 4c | 3,362$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.24 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,605$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…314bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,260$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,967$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 10c | 1,839$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.67 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34aa…ab6bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,670$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,508$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 39c | 1,500$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.99 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 69c | 1,253$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.7 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 11c | 1,216$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.24 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 7c | 1,097$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 70c | 1,044$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.06 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 37c | 1,000$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +348.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…03e6backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…7674backed No | 79c | 950$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…66b7backed No | 74c | 795.79$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…f7a9backed Yes | 65c | 792.52$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 29c | 741.66$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.84 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 706.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f63…5b31backed No | 66c | 600$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 61c | 575.96$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.02 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 63c | 565.89$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.01 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 5c | 563.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 49c | 552$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 60c | 516.19$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.01 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +321.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf96…9942backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.42 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da8…aa05backed No | 61c | 492.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.76 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…a183backed Yes | 20c | 484.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 483.68$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.33 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d6…2ee9backed No | 79c | 483.14$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 40c | 398$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +240.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 4c | 369.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 14c | 359.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 5c | 350$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 11c | 340$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 20c | 300$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 23c | 276.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…a292backed No | 76c | 263.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…c223backed Yes | 34c | 260$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 41c | 244.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 209.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…818bbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb003…97e1backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +305.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 34c | 199.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 56c | 196.43$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 74c | 194.89$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 56c | 179.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x50b3…96b8backed No | 61c | 178$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fa…aeddbacked Yes | 28c | 176.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…b21dbacked No | 69c | 172.63$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 14c | 171$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bf…6381backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 27c | 167.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…bec0backed Yes | 14c | 163.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 19c | 162.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…698bbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe25…ba03backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 69c | 148.05$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7eccbacked Yes | 14c | 144.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f44…fa88backed Yes | 19c | 137.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 14c | 135$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2a…b8c2backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 19c | 128.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d91…87ccbacked Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeffe…5efabacked Yes | 16c | 119.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked Yes | 15c | 105.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 17c | 104.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 28c | 99.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 78c | 96.54$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 66c | 96.3$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +211.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef5…343ebacked Yes | 30c | 94.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…c2e6backed Yes | 18c | 89.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 20c | 87.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 25c | 71.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09de…aa3abacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc90…3f6ebacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 30c | 59.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 51c | 56.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 63c | 54.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…eabdbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…b9cdbacked No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3367…906ebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ca…60aebacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.