Wallet 0xfd5a…aa7a
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xfd5a25def796ca377e5b22fb7b60e3007d40aa7a
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 108
- What they are worth now
- $4,091
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 25
bought for $3,855
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 108, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?backed No | 559.44shares | 65c | 97c | $541 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?backed No | 353.82shares | 86c | 94c | $331 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?backed No | 229.86shares | 82c | 100c | $229 |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?backed Yes | 245.27shares | 90c | 91c | $222 |
| Iran leadership change by September 30?backed No | 173.99shares | 89c | 97c | $168 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?backed No | 193.03shares | 78c | 83c | $159 |
| Market 0xce41…ce89backed outcome 1 | 159.88shares | 92c | 99c | $159 |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?backed Yes | 239.01shares | 36c | 50c | $118 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?backed No | 158.82shares | 73c | 74c | $118 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?backed No | 138.11shares | 34c | 75c | $104 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 25. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale?backed Yes · resolved | 3,592shares | 2c | $0 | Counted |
| Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?backed No · resolved | 803.92shares | 1c | $0 | Never scored |
| Market 0x78bb…158dbacked outcome 0 | 622.35shares | 3c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · resolved | 268.33shares | 1c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · resolved | 223.46shares | 0c | $0 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 1 does — the wallet holds a scored pick on that market, already in the table below. 3 never will: TailMyPicks scored those markets and this wallet’s position on them did not clear the bar — too small, or bought above the price cap, or hedged away. 1 is not in the published record at all — TailMyPicks has published nothing about that market, so it is neither counted nor ruled out. Either it has yet to be ingested, or nothing anybody held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 236
- Categories scored
- 12
- Categories below 50
- 8
Best Category: Middle East, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).
Best Category Middle East at 60 out of 100; worst WNBA at 43.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fifa International — the 108 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MLB — the 74 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CS2 — the 9 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
WNBA — the 9 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Valorant — the 7 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AI — the 3 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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| Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.