MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86b698f3e53164683d6f3dc75b6aa146036c9b127a7caeee13540a8ed520061c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Under | 45c | 10,814$4,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,947.96 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 7,837$4,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,426.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 46c | 7,804$3,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,213.96 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…0ff5backed Over | 54c | 6,755$3,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,627.61 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 54c | 4,740$2,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,559.35 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 3,998$1,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 57c | 2,500$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.65 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 48c | 2,048$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 55c | 1,523$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.75 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Under | 45c | 1,497$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.89 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 47c | 1,401$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.87 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 1,234$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.49 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…5ee4backed Over | 53c | 1,034$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.02 | 285 | 53.3%152 W · 133 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 849.83$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 44c | 765$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.4 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 43c | 674$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.18 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 46c | 669.09$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.31 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 637.26$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.69 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 46c | 541.67$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.5 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Over | 58c | 516.43$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 44c | 399.99$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.45 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 55c | 390$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 42c | 339.49$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.55 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 55c | 272.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 55c | 269$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.95 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 52c | 266$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.68 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67dd…ced5backed Over | 56c | 245.29$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 237$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 48c | 229.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 45c | 180$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 45c | 173.32$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.19 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 42c | 160$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 48c | 146.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 54c | 145.73$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 48c | 113.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Over | 53c | 100.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 47c | 99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Under | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Under | 57c | 85.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 46c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 74.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 69.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 46c | 69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Over | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 52c | 59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Over | 48c | 40.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 46c | 40.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Over | 48c | 40.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Over | 55c | 33.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Under | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 205 | 51.7%106 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Over | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked Under | 47c | 26.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 44c | 26.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Under | 46c | 25.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 48c | 24.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…3320backed Over | 56c | 21.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.