MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d9a31cf87aa093d1ce354beee9245e83262bb1702235932b535ffb56835c3ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 57c | 3,054$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.84 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 46c | 2,500$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Over | 43c | 926.68$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 54c | 900$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 42c | 702.74$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.15 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 620.52$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 609$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Under | 54c | 526.09$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5cadbacked Over | 42c | 463.82$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.8 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…b30dbacked Under | 58c | 412.95$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.44 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67dd…ced5backed Over | 46c | 394.33$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 57c | 348.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.08 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 53c | 315$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.05 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 54c | 277.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.77 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 43c | 253.31$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.42 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Over | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 54c | 228.43$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Over | 47c | 212.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 42c | 209.29$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 48c | 181$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.88 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 52c | 176$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 55c | 170$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 149.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 58c | 125.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 55c | 107.2$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Over | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 42c | 74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 39.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…cebabacked Under | 59c | 18.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 61c | 17.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.