MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a430dd8f1c2508ad8339349f8b6f903328085918b3fbac9b3ac93f062cf2801
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 1,913$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.81 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e0a0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 1,425$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 1,069$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.58 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 1,017$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.76 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 820$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.2 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 753.97$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.53 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 696.74$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.66 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 528$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.04 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 502.59$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.09 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 417.84$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.85 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 79c | 140$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 21c | 135$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 105$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 95.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Milwaukee Brewers | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…d9b6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 65.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 60.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…65ffbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 50.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…1ed0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 48.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 25.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.