Middle East · resolved market
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7d6bcbc6c1201251e42ba47062f2cf33dd45922afca02dda1c2da8081013ad0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $293,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $332,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 54c | 18,216$9,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,337.97 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…64b0backed No | 62c | 14,525$9,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,070.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 13,959$7,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,438.12 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 38c | 10,496$4,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,468.29 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138f…657ebacked No | 0c | 9,421$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…4e83backed No | 20c | 8,701$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.76 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 77c | 6,427$4,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.71 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed No | 48c | 6,302$3,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,008.9 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed Yes | 63c | 5,853$3,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.42 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 64c | 5,750$3,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,665.99 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 40c | 5,413$2,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,172.02 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 74c | 5,031$3,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.19 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 47c | 4,931$2,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,634.76 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 66c | 4,629$3,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,077.07 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 29c | 4,400$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.47 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 54c | 4,063$2,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.77 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 61c | 4,050$2,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,454.93 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8c1cbacked Yes | 56c | 4,000$2,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 31c | 4,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,760 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 61c | 4,000$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,439.99 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 41c | 3,366$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.3 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 19c | 3,211$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.49 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…de5ebacked Yes | 32c | 3,106$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.72 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 39cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 3,071$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860.02 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…5a6fbacked Yes | 35c | 2,900$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x411a…5a86backed Yes | 34c | 2,820$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 67c | 2,805$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.25 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes | 62c | 2,576$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.43 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 27c | 2,303$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.39 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 62c | 2,097$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 49c | 2,081$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.22 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +54%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…09f1backed No | 63c | 2,050$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 61c | 1,968$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.38 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e65…0f3cbacked Yes | 41c | 1,841$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 21cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 29c | 1,800$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.99 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 38c | 1,786$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.48 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 52c | 1,753$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.27 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 63c | 1,720$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 54c | 1,713$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.42 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…57bebacked Yes | 33c | 1,698$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 62c | 1,621$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.89 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 61c | 1,500$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 53c | 1,475$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.14 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…778dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,347$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.53 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…11e3backed No | 63c | 1,300$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.97 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 26c | 1,250$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.71 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 48c | 1,176$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 52c | 1,167$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.11 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 30c | 1,110$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.55 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed Yes | 45c | 1,075$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…9a1dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,065$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.13 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 58c | 960.98$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.27 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83f8…f751backed No | 27c | 925$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed No | 17c | 912.14$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.97 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 63c | 887.99$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.19 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 48c | 865$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.3 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 21c | 831.54$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.23 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 39c | 812.98$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.3 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…a1d3backed No | 70c | 812.59$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82ae…2890backed No | 54c | 803$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed No | 66c | 800$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25d…d127backed No | 67c | 800$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 73cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 59c | 799.99$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 63c | 786.95$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.69 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 43c | 762.99$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.47 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 72c | 750$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked No | 56c | 736.99$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.26 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…8eefbacked No | 66c | 727.91$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.03 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 722.29$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.01 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed No | 60c | 717$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.2 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1ac6backed No | 37c | 702$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.74 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 56c | 699.98$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.99 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 64c | 600$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 600$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 57c | 600$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -11.4wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…aac8backed Yes | 31c | 599.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.99 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +6.4wins | +0.38per pick | 27cpaid | +110%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x55f3…1a88backed No | 61c | 595.38$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 33c | 590.69$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.93 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x09ff…c05fbacked No | 31c | 565.22$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 52c | 532.33$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.17 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x158a…03fcbacked Yes | 39c | 518.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.32 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe476…30eebacked No | 65c | 516.54$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b4…b2f6backed Yes | 40c | 503.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ed…bf70backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed No | 51c | 499.98$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.99 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x124f…0deabacked No | 58c | 494.99$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.59 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…7b44backed Yes | 31c | 493.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 43c | 488.37$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.1 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…3b70backed No | 65c | 485$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 66c | 467.51$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.78 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6565…c235backed Yes | 46c | 451.12$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked No | 62c | 429.01$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.29 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 23c | 413.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 31c | 412.65$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.25 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 36c | 410$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.4 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 10c | 401.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?this page
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?Yes won
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Yes won
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.