Middle East · resolved market
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cf6ef5ddb03445ade94ca79a361ffb3b4abe9ec2f9b752b963eb657ca8798b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $502,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $496,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $502,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb076…07d3backed Yes | 1c | 181,452$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 4c | 8,745$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.52 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 4c | 7,500$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.54 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 3c | 5,700$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.19 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8647…74a9backed Yes | 7c | 5,328$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 4,697$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 5c | 4,020$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.02 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e830backed Yes | 4c | 3,721$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 4c | 2,762$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.21 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…ee64backed Yes | 4c | 2,404$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…27d2backed Yes | 4c | 2,400$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 6c | 1,406$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 1,189$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Yes | 4c | 1,167$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…a286backed Yes | 5c | 1,096$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,023$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed Yes | 5c | 900$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 4c | 877.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 818.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca76…2e0cbacked Yes | 4c | 810$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 2c | 617.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c5…704bbacked Yes | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 3c | 506.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 503.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d5…d1bbbacked Yes | 3c | 499.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +148%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 4c | 495$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 5c | 467.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11e…9f79backed Yes | 5c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 303.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27da…d24abacked Yes | 3c | 301.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33be…adc8backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed Yes | 9c | 297.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 9c | 229.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 5c | 200.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71a…840dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fb…58e2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 6c | 184.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.66per pick | 9cpaid | +882.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 153.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?this page
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?Yes won
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?Yes won
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.