Middle East · resolved market
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x136f4e242faeb42f66fa6baf4c192fbfa0b5788ed47a2bf1a3d3a2051b87715a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,860,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,854,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,860,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 832 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 21c | 136,317$29,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107,129.83 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 13c | 40,088$5,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,931.31 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 30c | 30,604$9,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,353.33 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 78c | 30,524$23,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,907.2 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 76c | 29,813$22,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,671.95 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 15c | 29,669$4,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,204.32 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked Yes | 21c | 26,608$5,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,984.88 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +8.4wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +48%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…64b0backed No | 70c | 25,788$18,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,172.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 23c | 25,098$5,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,253.42 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 13c | 25,000$3,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,874.96 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 23,650$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.08 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…12a4backed Yes | 24c | 23,174$5,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,613.9 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +8.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 26c | 18,647$4,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,873.62 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 35c | 18,528$6,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,113.29 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…7997backed Yes | 78c | 17,831$13,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,850.06 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 26c | 17,056$4,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,696.62 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 1c | 16,886$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.98 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 74c | 16,675$12,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,265 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 65c | 16,511$10,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,819.74 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 80c | 16,119$12,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,895.41 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 79c | 16,054$12,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,725.87 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43bb…26dbbacked Yes | 20c | 14,460$2,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,553.33 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…27d2backed Yes | 15c | 14,439$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,265.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…5e86backed Yes | 45c | 13,138$5,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,289.67 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed Yes | 20c | 12,808$2,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,301.07 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 31c | 12,545$3,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,709.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed No | 74c | 12,040$8,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,909.4 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f47…d66ebacked No | 68c | 12,009$8,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,117.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x411a…5a86backed Yes | 20c | 11,987$2,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,643.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed No | 72c | 11,393$8,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,243.99 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 71c | 11,144$7,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,885.35 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed Yes | 32c | 11,080$3,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,587.25 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed No | 75c | 11,000$8,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,240 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 22c | 10,778$2,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,425.19 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…09f1backed No | 73c | 10,015$7,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,302.18 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 53c | 10,012$5,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,686.36 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 75c | 9,390$7,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,046.75 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 76c | 9,374$7,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,146.63 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes | 32c | 9,338$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,337.19 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +9.7wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +186.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa18c…d792backed No | 68c | 8,896$6,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,029.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 71c | 8,450$6,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,034.37 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…831ebacked No | 79c | 8,200$6,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,477.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 74cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…e37fbacked Yes | 37c | 8,000$2,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,080 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12b8…479cbacked Yes | 20c | 8,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,410 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 7,492$1,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.62 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 78c | 7,480$5,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,863.16 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 7,436$5,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,592.39 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…5b9abacked Yes | 26c | 7,414$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,491.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 55c | 7,272$4,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,010.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 34c | 7,231$2,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,738.93 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 22c | 7,228$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,642.21 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…a286backed Yes | 15c | 7,152$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,098.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 18c | 7,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,740 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 18c | 6,922$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,707.51 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…6f22backed No | 74c | 6,850$5,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,042.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…002abacked Yes | 46c | 6,779$3,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,655.07 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 27c | 6,475$1,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,719.31 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 64c | 6,408$4,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,083.57 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed No | 1c | 6,200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 76c | 6,078$4,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,641.4 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x121d…832abacked No | 9c | 5,901$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…8099backed Yes | 29c | 5,833$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,134.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 65c | 5,775$3,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,770.55 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b95…29f2backed Yes | 22c | 5,592$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,339.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed No | 39c | 5,481$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,135.22 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes | 18c | 5,474$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,474.35 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 22c | 5,394$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,233.5 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4def…f8e8backed Yes | 21c | 5,278$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,146.08 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 69c | 5,129$3,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,546.34 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 28c | 5,094$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,692.1 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 20c | 5,016$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,007.01 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…142bbacked No | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…74bcbacked No | 76c | 5,000$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,799.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…37cabacked No | 77c | 5,000$3,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,849.99 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 77c | 5,000$3,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,872.5 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe26e…036bbacked No | 76c | 4,958$3,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,780 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked No | 74c | 4,861$3,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,597.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 4,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 31c | 4,629$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,211.54 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 78c | 4,577$3,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,563.2 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…4e83backed No | 19c | 4,468$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.94 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 24c | 4,433$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,371.36 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 45c | 4,418$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430.45 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 39c | 4,341$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,643.38 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed Yes | 15c | 4,333$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,693.33 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 34c | 4,268$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,831.32 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…272dbacked Yes | 31c | 4,052$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,783.85 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 73c | 4,034$2,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,929.28 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes | 24c | 4,023$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,047.42 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.24per pick | 28cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x43a2…3901backed Yes | 15c | 4,022$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,419.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed Yes | 21c | 4,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,160 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 55c | 4,000$2,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,183.99 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff99…5602backed Yes | 50c | 3,961$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,961.49 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed No | 57c | 3,926$2,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,252.26 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 18c | 3,888$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,176.38 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 36c | 3,876$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,479.28 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 23c | 3,822$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,942.94 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 39c | 3,603$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.53 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 72c | 3,601$2,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.75 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…e8babacked Yes | 28c | 3,544$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,543.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?this page
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?Yes won
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?Yes won
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.