TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x71ab…f015

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
192
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Commodities, grading 64 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 64 out of 100; worst Poker at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT13949.6%69 W · 70 L+20.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
Commodities — the 139 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.24
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.12
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$292.69
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+300%+$398.25
Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.17
Will there be between 31 and 33 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$4.96
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30,934Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+158.4%+$49,013.99
Will 260 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.31
Will gas hit $4.25 (High) by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$215.38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+25%+$14.71
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.77
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$27,789Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+33.7%+$9,353.37
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of July 13 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+39.8%+$25.67
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+1,811.2%+$2,039.04
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.13
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.49
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.62
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$6,926Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+115.5%+$7,998.58
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$418Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$137.16
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.25
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$699Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+43.1%+$301
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.94
Showing 25 of 139 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT2441.7%10 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$3,836Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,835.6
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+400%+$303.47
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$407.23
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.64
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$156.41
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,929Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,929.28
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$129
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$45.82
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,906Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+174.3%+$3,322.38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$3,904Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+158.5%+$6,188.65
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$658Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$658.13
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,169.98
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$301.12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$470
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$170.87
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$130
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.01
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.94
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$895Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+47.7%+$426.63
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$190.8
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$325
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$156
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 24 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.5
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.98
Will NVIDIA reach $192 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+301%+$380
Will Meta dip to $620 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$75
Will Meta dip to $640 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$3
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+43.1%+$100.19
Will Tesla dip to $353 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+203%+$268
Will Amazon reach $216 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$85
Will Google dip to $285 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$103.5
Will Apple dip to $248 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$87.36
All 10 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+82.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,830Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+53%+$970
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$384Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$215.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Poker — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$6,196Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,196.07
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.